It's finally time for the first playoff picture of the 2026 FCS football season. We've already experienced one of the wildest seasons in recent memory, and we will have over a month of regular-season football remaining.

After each week, we will look at each conference and take a look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2026 FCS Playoffs, which feature 11 automatic bids and 13 at-large bids. The focus of this series will be the at-large bids and the "bubble" picture, but we will also discuss some of the conference races.

"Locks" are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. "Should Be In" are teams that are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups down the stretch. "Work To Do" features teams that still need stronger resumes to make the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 9.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State

Montana State is one of two "Locks" that we have so far, with a 7-1 overall record, an FBS win over Nevada, and a projected Top 25 SOS. The Bobcats were the No. 1 team in the committee's ranking, and all they need to do is win out and secure that top seed.

The Bobcats have one of the best wins in the country over Northern Arizona. This team has a clear path to at least nine wins with games against Cal Poly and Northern Colorado, but the seed will be determined by the results against Idaho State and Montana.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Northern Arizona, Weber State, Montana, UC Davis, Idaho State, Southern Utah, Idaho

Northern Arizona is in a great spot, and you could argue that they could be moved into the "Should Be In" tier. The Lumberjacks only have one FCS loss, which came on the road against Montana State, but also have quality wins over Montana, Idaho State, and Incarnate Word. If they can get past a tricky road test against Southern Utah, they should secure a playoff spot and begin to focus on how high a seed they can earn.

Weber State played well in Bozeman last week and still appears to be one of the hotter teams in the FCS. Unfortunately, they still have to overcome early-season losses to Southern Utah and Portland State. Their projected SOS is 19th nationally, which could give them a chance at making the field at 7-5. They most likely need to at least split their next two games against UC Davis and Northern Arizona.

Speaking of UC Davis, the Aggies had one of the softer schedules in the Big Sky. Their 40-point loss to Montana looks worse every week, which is why I can't see this team making the field at 7-5, so they probably need to win out. Their best win is against Eastern Washington, which makes this weekend's game against Weber State a possible playoff-elimination matchup.

Montana had a much-needed bye week after back-to-back losses that dropped them to 5-3 overall. With four games remaining, there are several directions this season could go. If they win all four, the Griz will easily be a Top 16 seed, possibly even a Top 8 seed at 9-3. Even if they lose one more, especially if Davis continues to look bad, it probably knocks them out of Top 16 seed discussions. If they lose two or more games, they might be at risk of missing the postseason. A projected Top 15 SOS helps them, but the path isn't easy with games against EWU, Idaho State, and Montana State remaining.

Idaho State has had a weird season, sitting at 5-3 with an FBS win over Utah State and a projected Top 25 SOS. They have a solid resume, but unfortunately, they finish the year against three of the best offenses in the country in Montana State, Montana, and Idaho. Injuries are starting to impact this team, but the Bengals better figure it out. They need to win two of their last three games to guarantee a spot; even at 7-5, this team would be very uncomfortable on Selection Sunday.

Idaho and Southern Utah find themselves in similar spots with 3-5 records, just barely hanging around the bubble discussion. Each team has to win out to have a chance at an at-large bid, but that still may not be enough. Idaho has the head-to-head win over the Thunderbirds, plus will have notable wins over Montana and Montana State, along with a Top 10 SOS. Idaho's biggest remaining tests will come against UC Davis and Idaho State.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Campbell, Monmouth, UAlbany, Stony Brook, Bryant

The CAA is going to have one of the most interesting conference races in the country. This conference did not get many key non-conference wins, plus may be penalized for its overall SOS compared to other bubble teams. All of the teams above have one or fewer conference losses and have a shot to win the auto-bid. The great news is that over the next four weeks, we have four games where these five teams play each other.

Campbell is easily in the best spot right now. The Camels have the best non-conference win of this group over ETSU and remain undefeated against the FCS. Unfortunately, the Camels also have the toughest schedule of this group, and could fall out of this race with a few losses. The positive side of this is that the Camels can add some quality wins to their resume, which could push them into a conversation for a Top 8 seed. It starts this weekend against UAlbany.

Monmouth is in the next best position with a 6-1 record against the FCS and a 5-0 record in conference play. The Hawks also have an easier schedule than Campbell, and if they beat Bryant this weekend, they could be close to punching their ticket into the field. Monmouth and Campbell play in the final week of the season, which could end up being a CAA championship game.

UAlbany has looked like one of the best teams in the CAA over the past three weeks. The Great Danes went on the road and beat Stony Brook and Rhode Island by a combined 34 points. Their next two games against Campbell and Bryant will play a huge role in whether they can make a postseason push. They need to at least split those games, but will need to win both to lock in a spot. They also don't control their own destiny since they lost to Monmouth earlier this season.

Stony Brook beat Bryant a week ago, and yet these two teams are just hanging onto their playoff hopes. The Seawolves should hope that Campbell beats UAlbany and then they upset the Camels the following week. It would give them a chance to earn a share of the CAA title, especially since their other remaining opponents have a combined record of 6-18. Bryant has the toughest remaining schedule and the weakest resume of this group, so they better win out or their season will be over.

Ivy League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Harvard, Dartmouth

Harvard clearly looks like the best team in the Ivy League after beating Princeton 35-7. They have a chance to cruise to the finish line and will have a shot at a Top 8 seed if they finish 10-0. Don't forget, the Crimson looked dominant last season at this point before falling apart late in the season.

Dartmouth is included here as they are the only other Ivy League team that controls its own destiny for the auto-bid. They only have one conference loss, but will play Harvard this week. It does not appear that the Ivy League has a real path to two bids unless Dartmouth can upset Harvard, and then the Crimson finishes 9-1.

MVFC

Locks: None
Should Be In: South Dakota

South Dakota gets the honor of being the first MVFC team to reach this tier. It mostly has to do with their schedule and the fact that they have already hit 7 Division I wins. The Coyotes are 7-1 against the FCS, and if they can beat SDSU, they are very much alive for a Top 4 seed, even possibly a Top 2 seed if enough chaos occurs above them.

Work To Do: Youngstown State, South Dakota State, Illinois State, North Dakota, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa

Now we reach one of the craziest sections of this week's playoff picture. Due to the SOS of the conference, if any of these teams reach seven Division I wins, they have a real shot at making the field. A lot of these teams still have a chance to earn a Top 8 seed, while some are still alive for one of the Top 4 seeds, if not even higher.

The only reason Youngstown State hasn't moved into the next tier is that the Penguins only have six wins plus only play 11 games this season. Their only loss is a 7-point loss to SDSU on the road, and they have one of the best wins in the country over South Dakota. They have games against North Dakota, Murray State, and Illinois State. If the Penguins win two of those three games, they'll likely be a Top 16 seed with one of the toughest schedules in the country. Win all of them, and they could find themselves in the running for a Top 4 seed, even with only 9 wins.

Illinois State also only has 11 Division I games on the schedule. The Redbirds have a win over an NAIA team, which is going to hurt their overall resume. They are 5-1 against the FCS and should improve to 6-1 this weekend, but they have a brutal schedule to end the year with games against North Dakota, Youngstown State, and South Dakota. They're going to have to win at least one of those games, possibly even two, depending on the bubble.

South Dakota State should feel pretty good about where it stands entering this weekend. They have a fairly easy schedule after this weekend's game against South Dakota. If they win this week, they'll be locked into the field, but they should also feel very confident about earning a Top 3 seed with more Division I games than SFA and Youngstown State, along with a head-to-head win over the Penguins.

North Dakota is in a very tricky spot. They do have a win over SDSU, but the Fighting Hawks are only 6-2 against the FCS with three games remaining, all against potential playoff teams. The good news is that Illinois State and Southern Illinois have to come to the Alerus Center, and only one win should get them into the field. The Fighting Hawks need to win at least two more games if they want to be in the Top 16 seed discussion, and they may need to win all three of their remaining games.

Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa are in desperation mode right now. Both teams need to win all of their remaining games, and SIU may not even be guaranteed a spot if they do that. UNI is in a much better spot with wins over North Dakota and Illinois State on its resume. However, with only 11 games on the schedule, the Panthers still need to get to 7 wins, which would require them to beat South Dakota and SDSU.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Duquesne, Stonehill

The NEC will be a one-bid league, but the championship race is going to be a ton of fun. Central Connecticut State appears to have an advantage right now as the only undefeated team in conference play. The Blue Devils still have four games against the other top conference teams, but do not play Robert Morris this season.

OVC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: SEMO, UT Martin, Lindenwood, Western Illinois

The OVC will also be a one-bid league this season. SEMO looks like the best team right now and has the advantage as the only undefeated team in conference play. Only UT Martin controls its own destiny, as SEMO already has head-to-head wins over Lindenwood and Western Illinois.

Patriot League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Lehigh, Richmond, Colgate, Villanova

Every week, the Patriot League is looking more and more like a one-bid conference. The SOS for these top teams is not great and nobody has a real signature non-conference win. The best OOC win may be Lehigh's 4-point win over Dartmouth, which is only 3-3.

Richmond and Lehigh still control their destiny for the autobid, but will play each other on Nov. 14. The best chance for this league to get an at-large bid is Villanova winning out and reaching 8-4 overall. They have the brand to catch the committee's eye, which does mean something. Colgate is barely hanging on here at 4-4 overall.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Dayton, St. Thomas, Butler, Marist

Another one-bid league, but there are four teams tied at the top with one conference loss right now. Dayton likely has the advantage here, with no games remaining against the other top teams, plus the Flyers have already beaten Butler.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Tennessee Tech, ETSU, Mercer, Chattanooga, Wofford

The SoCon has one of the most competitive conference races in the FCS. All of the teams above have a path to 8 wins, which will give them an excellent shot at sneaking into the field this year. ETSU is in the best position for the auto-bid as the only remaining undefeated team in conference play. The Bucs have three tough games against Tennessee Tech, Wofford, and Mercer. ETSU needs to win at least one of those games to feel comfortable about making the field.

Tennessee Tech has the best non-conference win of this group against Monmouth. The Golden Eagles have the highest ceiling for a seed in the conference and could take control of the race for the auto-bid with a win over ETSU this weekend. They also still play Mercer, which sits at 6-1 against the FCS with three games remaining against potential playoff teams. The Bears will need to get to 8 wins, but they do have a quality non-conference win over Abilene Christian.

Chattanooga and Wofford are in the toughest spot as both sit at 5-3 overall, but still have FBS games remaining against SEC opponents. They have to go 3-0 against their remaining FCS opponents, which will be a tough task. The Mocs host Mercer on Nov. 7 in one of the biggest remaining SoCon games of the season.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: Stephen F. Austin

Stephen F. Austin is extremely close to "Lock" status at 8-0 overall, but only seven of those are Division I wins. The Lumberjacks have solid wins against Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, and Southeastern Louisiana. It will be fascinating to see what the committee does with SFA; even if they go undefeated, they would only have 11 Division I wins, but no real signature wins compared to some of the other MVFC/Big Sky teams. The Lumberjacks may need some chaos to strike above them if they want a Top 4 seed, even if they finish undefeated.

Work To Do: Lamar, Southeastern Louisiana, Incarnate Word

Lamar is in the best shape of the other remaining teams in this conference. They are likely to earn an at-large bid following their win over Houston Christian, improving to 6-1 against the FCS, and has three winnable games remaining on their schedule, along with a huge matchup against SFA. A win over the Lumberjacks could put them in a position for a Top 8 seed.

Southeastern Louisiana and Incarnate Word both remain alive at 4-4, but have very different resumes. The Lions have a head-to-head win over Lamar, plus an FBS win over Louisiana-Monroe. However, SLU will still need to win out and find a way to 8 wins to feel safe on the bubble. Incarnate Word is in a tricky spot due to a non-Division I game earlier this year. However, all of UIW's losses have come against Top 15 teams on the road by a combined 15 points. In two weeks, UIW and SLU play in an elimination matchup.

UAC

Locks: Tarleton State

Tarleton State is the other "Lock" we have right now. The Texans already have eight Division I wins, a Top 10 FCS win, and an FBS win over Bowling Green. This team has an excellent opportunity to earn a Top 2 seed if they can win out and finish 12-0. They would be guaranteed to have the most Division I wins in the country with a Top 10 road win despite having a strength of schedule somewhere in the 40s. It would certainly help Tarleton State if they won by double digits in each of their remaining games. This includes a massive in-state battle against Abilene Christian.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Austin Peay, Abilene Christian, North Alabama

Austin Peay sits at 7-2 overall, 7-1 against the FCS, but the Govs may have a limited ceiling. Their best win is over 4-3 West Florida, and while they still play Abilene Christian, if the Wildcats lose that game, they'll probably only finish at 6-6, so how will the committee value that win? I think the Govs will end up with a seed somewhere between 9-16, even if they win out.

Abilene Christian may only be 4-3 against the FCS, but the Wildcats are still undefeated in conference play. They don't have a bad loss on their resume, plus will finish with a Top 20 SOS. The Wildcats are one of the few teams in the country that can make the field at 7-5, but it will require an upset win over Tarleton State or Austin Peay. A win over Tarleton would be more impactful.

North Alabama is still hanging around the playoff picture at 4-4 with no bad losses. The Lions will need to win out to have a shot at an at-large bid. They still have games against Central Arkansas, West Florida, West Georgia, and Tarleton State.

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