If you weren’t feeling nostalgic for the Independence Era, playing one of the biggest games of the year in week two against an old Pac-12 team should do the trick. BYU faces off against Arizona in a rare week two conference game that will ultimately define both teams’ seasons. If BYU makes a statement, the noise around BYU and the playoff will get very loud. If they win close, perceptions remain about the same as last year. If they lose, BYU is likely headed for underachieving season this year. Here are five reasons we lean towards BYU making a statement.

1. The game will be played in Lavell Edwards Stadium

BYU has won 12 of its last 13 games at home dating back to 2024, and 13 straight in the month of September since 2019. Last season, BYU ranked 13th in average margin of victory against FBS opponents at home last season, with an average margin of victory of 18.4 points per game. Arizona coaches and media are insistent that the home crowd will not impact Saturday’s game, but I’m not so sure. Last season, Arizona won by an average margin of 15 points per game at home but just 4 points on the road, going 3-2 in that stretch. In his only start in Lavell Edwards Stadium, Noah Fifita             completed 50% of his passes for 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. This is obviously a new year and a new team, but BYU at Lavell Edwards Stadium is not something to underestimate.

2. BYU is bigger at almost every position

For a team that wants to be as physical as BYU, size matters, and BYU’s got a lot of it, especially compared to Arizona. BYU’s WR/TE room measures about 5 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier than the average Wildcat defensive back. BYU’s offensive line outweighs Arizona’s defensive line by about 26 pounds per man. Bear Bachmeier (6’2 230) is roughly the same size as the average Arizona linebacker (6’2 237). So is LJ Martin (6’2 220). Arizona’s pass-catchers outweigh BYU’s defensive backs by about 15 pounds but measure about the same height (6’2). Simply being bigger does not equate to being better, but tell that to the linebacker tasked with tackling Bear Bachmeier on any of his 22 carries against Arizona last season. Or the 5’9 corner being asked to guard 6’6 Kyler Kasper in the red-zone. If this game turns into a tug-of-war, I’m taking BYU.

3. Noah Fifita against pressure

This is more of a projection since we haven’t seen it in 2026, but with the talent on the defensive line and the speed in the linebacker room, BYU is going to get pressure on Noah Fifita. It’s also not like we are without proof of concept here. Isaiah Glasker, Tausili Akana, Nusi Taumoepeau, Keanu Tanuvasa, and Cade Uluave were among the most efficient pass rushers in their respective conferences last year. What’s more, in two starts against BYU, Noah Fifita was pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks. When faced with pressure last season, Fifita’s completion percentage dropped from 70% to 48%, from 7.8 ypa to 6.8 ypa, and a TD/INT ratio plummeted from 11.5/1 to 1.5/1. If BYU can’t pressure Fifita, he is liable to pick them apart, but with the front seven being the strength of an unbelievably talented defense, I don’t see that happening in LES.

4. Arizona’s secondary ain’t what it was a year ago, and neither is Bear Bachmeier

Bear Bachmeier’s worst passing performance by far was not actually Texas Tech. It was Arizona. On a particularly rough night, Bachmeier completed just 41% of his passes with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions against a Wildcat secondary that is almost entirely in the NFL this season. That also means that Arizona has a lot of studs to replace. Whether that effort has been successful is still up for debate. Arizona ranked 38th in PFF coverage grade last week vs an FCS opponent and gave up nearly 7 yards per attempt to a quarterback that averaged just over 6 yards per attempt the week before against Eastern Washington. Week 1 can be tricky with so many new faces, but BYU is fortunate to face this group before they work out all the kinks.

Bachmeier, on the other hand, has only gotten better since that game played in a monsoon last year. Outside two games against Texas Tech, Bachmeier finished the year completing nearly 70% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt. I exclude Texas Tech because I don’t believe Arizona has four players in the front seven that will be drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. Bachmeier has appeared to have taken another step forward this offseason after completing 80% his passes for 10 yards per attempt against Utah Tech last week. Arizona will pose a much steeper test, but I am putting my money on Bachmeier and a reloaded receiver core testing a rebuilt Arizona secondary rather than the other way around.

5. BYU has LJ Martin and yards after contact

Despite a dominant defensive showing versus. NAU, one of the concerns arising out of Tuscon was tackling. Arizona turned in the 88th best tackling performance in the country in week one, with 10 missed tackles coming from primarily from the Wildcat secondary. Of Northern Arizona’s 193 total yards, 154 came after the catch/after contact. They will now play an offense among the best in the country generating yards through those exact avenues. LJ Martin ranked 3rd among returning P4 running backs in yards after contact from last season while Bear Bachmeier ranked 6th among P4 quarterbacks. BYU also ranked 15th in the Power 4 in yards after the catch last season, a statistic heavily influenced by BYU’s ability to get the ball to its playmakers in space. If BYU can generate enough push up front, BYU’s athletes will able to make players miss in the secondary. That should lead to chunk plays and moving chains.

Prediction

This game is tough to predict because we really don’t know that much about either of these teams besides they would probably win the Big Sky conference. I think we know more about BYU in this matchup because we’ve seen this same roster beat Arizona on their home field just last year. Last year, Arizona had no answers for a BYU rushing attack that put up 258 yards on the ground in a game where running was really the only option. Arizona should be improved on that front, but traded a better front seven for a worse secondary. BYU is the bigger, more physical team and should be able to move the ball on Arizona, especially at home. If they take care of the ball, I think BYU puts up some points.

When Arizona has the ball, Noah Fifita won’t go quietly into a third-straight loss to BYU. He is too talented and wants this win too badly to not hit on some big plays. Fifita circling this game though, can cut both ways. Fifita has a propensity to force throws under pressure, especially against BYU. I really don’t think Fifita’s drive for vengeance is suddenly going to make him less aggressive. With the talent in BYU’s secondary, Fifita is going to have to make tight-window throws, which he is very good at. That said, I think one or two of those throws will wind up in the hands of a BYU defender in tight coverage. Arizona is going to score some points here, but BYU’s defense generates enough big plays late for BYU to pull away for their first statement win of the season.

BYU 34-21 Arizona

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on X and Facebook for the latest news.