ADP Risers and Fallers: Jalen Tolbert Up, Tua Tagovailoa Down

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Here are 10 players that have seen a significant change in ADP this week, according to National Fantasy Football Championships (NFFC).

Should you fade the hype, or attack the value? Let’s check it out.

Risers

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys
WR James Washington suffered a Jones fracture in practice this week and will likely miss 10 weeks.

With Amari Cooper now in Cleveland and Michael Gallup likely to miss the first couple of games, third-round pick Jalen Tolbert’s ADP has moved from 242 in May all the way up to 155 this week and possibly still presents a value at that spot in a high-octane Dallas offense.

Julio Jones, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No surprise here. Jones went from being completely off the radar to signing with a team that threw for 5,229 yards and 43 passing touchdowns in 2021, leading the league with 307.6 passing yards per game. Oh, and… Tom Brady.

Jones was going at pick 236 in May, but this week he’s coming off the board at pick 162.

Russell Gage, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite the signing of Jones and Chris Godwin not starting camp on the PUP list, Russell Gage continues to climb. He’s certainly in a good spot (see above), but pick 87 might be a bit aggressive. I preferred the value I got in May at pick 116.

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
The secret’s out on Cole Kmet. Tight end is a tough position, and Kmet has to see some positive TD regression. He’s one of my favorite picks at ADP. Kmet saw the second-most targets in Chicago (93) behind only Darnell Mooney, and he had a better catch rate (64.5%) than Mooney (57.9) The fact that he had zero touchdowns has to change. Kmet has gone from pick 139 in May, to pick 125 this week. In the 10th round, I am still all in.

Fallers

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
I guess tweets like these aren’t really moving the needle for fantasy.

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There are justified concerns about Tua Tagovailoa’s ability with the deep ball, despite his bevy of weapons. Tagavailoa’s average depth of target (aDOT) ranked 34th in the NFL in 2021.

But, with Tyreek HillJaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki all at the ready, Tagovailoa may have fallen to a value I finally like now at pick 140. In May, shortly after the Hill trade, Tagovailoa was going at pick 117.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
This one interests me. I’m not sure why Kamara has fallen instead of moving in the other direction after receiving news that the hearing for his looming suspension has been pushed back two months. That likely means Kamara will at least start the season, and perhaps he will play the entire season with the suspension being pushed into 2023. Two weeks ago, we were concerned he could miss most of this season. At an ADP of 23, Kamara is falling into the late second/early third round, and likely presents a value. In May, Kamara was coming off the board at pick 18.

Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The Niners signed Deebo Samuel to a sparkly new contract which includes bonuses for hitting rushing yards and rushing touchdown thresholds, and Eli Mitchell’s ADP has fallen. It’s always hard to predict how 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will use his running back room, but last season he played Mitchell whenever he was healthy. And yes, Mitchell still finished with nearly 1,000 yards in only 11 games played even with Deebo being Deebo. Mitchell is going at pick 62 this week after coming off the board at pick 50 earlier this summer. I like this value.

Antonio GIbson, RB, Washington Commanders
Antonio Gibson was someone I predicted would bust at his ADP last year, and that held true, but this year he has fallen all the way from pick 33 in May to pick 62 this week, and suddenly I am starting to gain interest.

Yes, they signed J.D. McKissic and that caps his ceiling. Yes, they have said they want to lighten Gibson’s load. No, none of those things are good, but Gibson logged 10 double-digit PPR games last year and finished with 1,331 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s a decent option at a position with a lot of turnover, and if he continues to drop, he’s worth an add.

Kenneth Walker, III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Despite the announcement that Chris Carson will be retiring, Walker, who was going at pick 77 just a few weeks ago, has fallen to pick 93. Meanwhile, Rashaad Penny’s ADP has remained exactly the same, at pick 88. If you believe the Seahawks will run the rookie down the stretch, it’s a decent value. Just bear in mind for PPR-leagues that the Seahawks targeted their running backs the least of any team in 2021.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin commanded a 21% target share in Tampa Bay before his injury in Week 15 last season, and he finished as the WR8 on a points-per-game basis. Now, despite not being placed on the PUP list to start camp, Godwin has fallen from pick 52 in May to pick 60 this week. Sure, they could work him in slowly, but we knew that in May. Are Julio Jones and Russell Gage that big of a threat to Godwin? It looks like fantasy managers are concerned, but I’m not- especially if Godwin continues to fall.

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