JERUSALEM — Thousands of Americans Jews who fled to Israel amid rising antisemitism in the US could be pivotal in Tuesday’s national election — and most of them appear to be breaking for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, observers say.

An estimated 3,500 Americans have been making Aliyah — moving to the Jewish state — each of the last two years in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attacks, and the subsequent war in Gaza and anti-Israel protests across the US.

There are now an estimated 500,000 American Israelis — including about 200,000 from New York City, Marc Zell, the Chairman of Republicans Overseas Israel, told The Post.

He believes that 80-90% of the transplants “vote overwhelmingly Republican” — and they’re also backing Netanyahu in his push for reelection.

Much of Tuesday’s election has come down to whether voters blame Netanyahu for security failures that allowed the Oct. 7 attacks, or whether they think he is the strongest one to lead the country through a multi-front war.

Netanyahu’s main rival in the election is former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot.

“I fully support Bibi openly in this election,” Zell said, using Netanyahu’s nickname.

He added: “To hang Oct. 7 around Bibi’s neck is unfair.”

Zell said he believes Israel “needs an independent commission that squarely addresses what happened” on Oct. 7. However, Netanyahu has not endorsed an independent state inquiry into the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.

Zell, who has been living in Israel since 1986, said he believe Netanyahu bears responsibility for Oct. 7 but “others share in the responsibility.”

He cited the pressing need to “take steps to remove the Iranian threat” and argues that the “soul searching” associated with the independent investigation should take place after the war.

Heather Stone, the Vice Chair of American Democrats in Israel, disputed Zell’s assessment.

Stone, who is an attorney from New Jersey and moved to Israel in 1990, said American-Israelis from her organization have a “combination of reasons” for voting for the opposition parties.

Voters who are backing Eisenkot and his allies typically support an immediate Oct. 7 inquiry, as well as enforcing the military draft on ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel, known as Haredim, who are currently exempt.

Netanyahu’s Likud party and his conservative religious allies have so far shielded the Haredim from serving.

Polls suggest that the prime minister’s ruling alliance is trailing Eisenkot center-right alliance of parties. However, neither is currently projected to get the 61 seats needed to form a government outright.

Voting in Israel requires citizens to be in the country on election day with very few exceptions. That means tens of thousands are boarding planes to cast their ballots.

One group, AID Coalition, said it has organized flights back for 67,000 Israeli expats — about half from the US.

“The Israel that I grew up in is disappearing,” Canadian Yael Natra, who opposes Netanyahu, told the Associated Press.

“If something won’t change this time, I don’t know what’s going to be.”

Yisrael Medad, who was born in the Bronx and raised in Queens, believes Netanyahu “is the only one who can get things done in the present constellation of Trump and on the world stage.”

Jeff Michels, the son of the late long-term city councilman Stanley Michels from upper Manhattan, said he does not remember a time like this in Israel during his 30 years living here.

“Oct. 7 changed a lot of people’s perceptions in terms of where things are going,” he told the Post.

“In the past, a majority of American-Israelis voted for right-wing governments,” said the 62-year-old lawyer Michels.

He added that “bread and butter issues” like gas prices and food inflation are not burning the electoral concerns in Israel — security tends to dominate, as it is for this election.

Hillel Shenker, who was born in Brooklyn and moved to Israel in 1963 said that he plans to vote for the leftist Democrats, who are part of the coalition opposition Netanyahu.

He said “Netanyahu has not taken responsibility for the mistakes he made” with Hamas.