It is always going to be difficult to make a run toward the postseason when 16 of your final 21 games have to be played against teams with a .500 record or better.
However, for the Houston Astros, playing high-pressure games has become an almost everyday matter, especially during the second half of the season. And the best news for the team and its fan base is that the Astros have a 28-15 record against teams with a .500 record or better. That record gives them a .651 winning percentage, currently the best in the Major Leagues as we reach the final stretch of the campaign.
The Astros are not been the only team above .600, as the Milwaukee Brewers (39-23, .629) and Atlanta Braves (37-23, .617) also join the list. Then, there are only four more teams playing above .500 in the entire league: Tampa Bay Rays (32-23, .582), Chicago Cubs (31-25, .554), Boston Red Sox (33-29, .532), and New York Yankees (30-29, .508).
It is striking that teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers (33-36, .478) and Chicago White Sox (26-37, .413), who lead their respective divisions, rank ninth and 23rd, respectively, among the teams below .500.
Can the Astros Survive Their Schedule Down the Stretch?
Fans hold signs as Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes (15). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Astros will have to face several series against teams that currently have winning records. That continues with Arizona. But then they have three games each against Atlanta, Philadelphia, and the Rays. But when it comes to games against the toughest opponents, Houston has not only risen to the occasion in high-pressure situations, winning nearly 66% of its decisions, but has also been consistent in several areas.
Offensively, Houston leads with the highest slugging percentage (.436) and has the fourth-highest average in runs scored per game (4.6).
Third baseman Isaac Paredes leads the offense with a 175 adjusted OPS, followed by Yordan Alvarez (165) and Christian Walker (149). Walker himself leads the team with 11 home runs and 34 RBI, while Jeremy Peña has been a surprise with the highest slugging percentage (.566), the result of one double and 10 home runs in 109 plate appearances.
With fewer official at-bats, Carlos Correa, who is still working his way back from the injured list, has impressive numbers: a 205 adjusted OPS, with a .354/.446/.625 slash line in 56 plate appearances.
The Pitching Staff Also Provides Reasons for Confidence
Houston Astros pitcher Tatsuya Imai (45) celebrates with catcher Yainer Diaz (21). Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Following the same context, there are several points to highlight when it comes to the pitching staff. Houston’s pitchers have allowed the fifth-lowest opponent batting average (.227) and the fourth-lowest BABIP (.269), with a 3.95 ERA, eighth among just nine teams pitching below 4.00.
Hunter Brown deserves much of the credit here, holding opponents to just a 45 adjusted OPS across his four starts. Behind Brown are Tatsuya Imai (68), Bryan Abreu (69), and Peter Lambert (70), all with excellent results.
The fact that Imai ranks so highly against the toughest teams to face provides an interesting perspective when analyzing the inconsistencies he has experienced throughout the season. Imai’s overall ERA is 5.35 in 19 outings, with 11.2 SO/9 and a 1.87 SO/BB ratio. By contrast, in his four outings against teams with a .500 record or better, his ERA is 3.43, his SO/9 rate rises to 12.4, and his SO/BB ratio climbs to 3.62.
Abreu has a 1.69 ERA, the best on the staff, while Steven Okert (2.29), Peter Lambert (2.34), and AJ Blubaugh (2.66) are also below 3.00. Bryan King (77 adjusted OPS and a 4.41 ERA), Enyel De Los Santos (79/5.68), and Ronel Blanco (125/5.79) have been the least consistent pitchers, especially during the second half of the season. Okert is on the injured list and may not be a factor the rest of the month.
The end of the regular season will bring a major challenge for Houston. We already know they have handled the pressure to get to this point, but they still have to prove it in order to reach the postseason.
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