Do you remember Bowden Francis? No, not the one who ended up collapsing in 2025 with an unsustainable regression due to his injuries.

I want to go back to the version of Francis when he was healthy and became a surprising force in the Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation, especially since he was moved into the starting rotation in early August 2024.

His final eight appearances were absolutely incredible, posting a 1.33 ERA in 54 innings pitched, with 49 strikeouts and only six walks. He had four consecutive starts with at least seven innings pitched, and in seven consecutive outings out of his final eight, he secured at least six innings. He did it basically with the strength of his four-seam fastball, which finished rated in the 97th percentile with a +15 Run Value, combined with his splitter (+4) and sinker (+1), leaving opponents with a .216 xBA and .391 xSLG, per Statcast.

The Fall and the Uncertain Future

Just when it seemed the Jays were beginning to enjoy having another arm to support them on the mound, Francis collapsed. He began dealing with right shoulder discomfort in June 2025 due to impingement that showed inflammation. His 4.74 ERA in May, which improved a little after posting a 7.89 ERA in April, completely collapsed in June when he recorded a 12.46 ERA and his K-BB% rate fell from 14.0 to -3.9. Left-handed hitters took advantage of his inconsistencies to produce 14 of the 19 home runs he allowed in just 14 starts, posting a .630 slugging percentage.

In September, Francis tried to make progress in his rehabilitation, although he was unable to return to the mound before the end of the season. Almost five months later, in February of this year, he underwent Tommy John surgery to reconstruct the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The procedure sidelined him for the entire season, and this October, Francis has continued his recovery process in Arizona, without a confirmed date to resume throwing in 2027.

His return is uncertain, and what creates even more uncertainty is the fact that we do not know what version of his arsenal we will see, what his power will be, or what adjustments he will have to make if he can get medical clearance to return to the Major Leagues.

We have talked a lot about Toronto’s starting rotation, its inconsistencies, and everything the organization has had to do to remain competitive with so many absences, such as those of Francis, Cody Ponce, and Jose Berrios, three arms that seemed projected to make the pitching staff deeper. Heading into the 2027 season, we do not know for certain which of them could return, and it is clear that the Jays will have to project their plan without counting on any of them.