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Everything has a price tag in this new era of college athletics: NIL and direct payments to athletes, coaching salaries (and buyouts), the infrastructure arms race.

Even defeats can be costly, and Virginia's uninspired 38-27 loss to West Virginia on Saturday night likely took a toll on the Cavaliers' financial prospects -- even if it didn't affect their positioning in the Atlantic Coast Conference race.

It did, however, demote Virginia's national reputation, which could be telling in early December, when bowl bids come out. And it effectively eliminated the Cavaliers' margin for error if they hope for a prestigious bowl bid and its accompanying hefty payout.

Yes, Virginia could regroup, win its final nine regular-season games, and earn a spot in the ACC championship game, with a shot at the College Football Playoff. But that would require a level of performance that was absent against the Mountaineers, plus a dose of good fortune.

More likely, the Cavaliers will be in for a reprise of their challenge in 2025, when they participated in eight games decided by a single score (and won five of them). As opponents study the Mountaineers' successful game plan, Virginia can count on seeing a lot of future rivals running early and often, setting up play-action passes and pressuring Beau Pribula with exotic blitz packages.

A week ago, the Cavaliers were considered dark-horse CFP candidates or, at worst, on the short list for one of the ACC's three top-tier bowl bids (Gator, Pop Tarts or Holiday). At the moment, earning one of those would require the same kind of resilience Virginia showed a year ago in earning a Gator Bowl berth.

There's still a lot of football to play, but let's assume for now that the Cavaliers don't run the table. Where could they land?

Projecting Virginia's Bowl Destination

Sep 19, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Beau Pribula (7) hands off to running back Jekail Middlebrook (21) during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's possible that both Miami and Louisville could earn their way into the CFP, opening up one more first-tier spot for the ACC. As things look at the moment, Virginia's main rivals appear to be SMU, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and possibly Clemson.

The Hokies and Mustangs are the only teams on that list who appear on Virginia's schedule, and both will be difficult road games. The Cavaliers also face three other hungry rivals (Florida State, North Carolina, and Cal) that they beat by a combined 19 points a year ago, and the two ACC squads (Wake Forest and Duke) that beat them.

Even if it's not the most challenging of schedules, the odds of the Cavaliers dropping at least two ACC games seem a lot higher today than they did a week ago. That would drop them into the ACC's second-tier bowls: the Pinstripe, Duke's Mayo, or Sun bowls.

After Saturday's disappointing effort in Charlotte (and relatively small fan turnout), it's unlikely the folks at the Duke's Mayo Bowl would be eager to invite the Cavaliers back -- especially with four potential bowl-eligible ACC schools in North Carolina.

The Sun Bowl seems more prestigious, but El Paso also seems like a banishment--and a long, less-enticing trip for fans, especially as airline flights become more expensive.

The guess here is that, as of the moment, the Dec. 6 Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium might be the best fit, given the wealth of Virginia alumni in the New York area and the low odds Syracuse and Boston College have of becoming bowl-eligible.

The ACC will be paired with the Big Ten in the Pinstripe, and with Rutgers (0-3) and Maryland (2-1) no sure things to get to six wins, let's pair Virginia with Northwestern, a school with a similar academic reputation.

There's plenty of time for Virginia to improve on that projection, but there's no time to lose.

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