While the New York Mets have a lot of work to do in the offseason to build a winning team, that work may be paused in December. Major League Baseball and its Players Association do not appear close to a new collective bargaining agreement, due in large part to the league's desire to pursue a salary cap.

As most Mets fans are well aware at this point, spending the most money doesn't even guarantee a playoff appearance, let alone a championship. However, there's a world where a lengthy work stoppage leads to a salary cap and floor for baseball going forward.

The projected cap at the start of the agreement is just over $245 million, while the floor is just over $171 million. While the Mets won't have to worry about hitting the floor with Steve Cohen as the owner, a potential cap could bring unique complications for the Mets.

Evaluating the potential ramifications of a salary cap for the Mets

The big question with a potential salary cap is how it would work when teams are required to be cap- compliant. Nine teams finished 2026 with a payroll above the projected ceiling, according to Cots Contracts, while 12 finished below the floor.

The Mets could be in a pickle if the league enforced a hard cap ceiling right away, since they have already committed over $255 million in salary to nine players. That total includes Bo Bichette opting into his current contract but does not include any arbitration raises or external additions like Tarik Skubal.

Logic does dictate, however, that any potential cap would require a gradual phase-in period to allow teams on both ends of the spectrum to get their books in order. Therefore, if we operate under the assumption that a potential cap would be fully set by the 2028-29 offseason, the Mets would be in tremendous shape since their only long-term contracts on the books beyond 2028 belong to Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.

Part of the logic behind moving on from Brandon Nimmo's contract was to set up their books financially well for either a salary cap or a tightened luxury tax structure.

Cohen has made it clear he doesn't intend to spend into the tax indefinitely. Meanwhile, Stearns indicated in his end-of-season press conference that New York views its best path to success as a farm system forming the team's core, supplemented by targeted free-agent strikes.

Nonetheless, we still have a long way to go before we can determine what kind of salary structure the sport will operate with going forward. The Mets are, however, in good shape to roll with the punches of any potential changes thanks to very few long-term deals that could age poorly.

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