Curt Cignetti's squad will never admit that it was being propped up by last year's national championship squad, but it was. At least that was the case in the first Playoff rankings, which previously had the Hoosiers at No. 4 even though their résumé lacked quality wins and style points.
Fast forward to this week and, well, that benefit of the doubt is gone. Clearly.
Falling five spots to No. 9 was bizarre for the idle Hoosiers. Call it reactionary, call it correctional or just call it weird.
I'd like to think Cignetti will call it something else — "ammo."
Cignetti finally has the thing defending champs often lack
That is, in-season disrespect. That's how he can spin it.
I'd argue that preseason disrespect came in the form of being picked to finish third in the Big Ten after winning it all, but I digress.
As for in-season disrespect, that's been hard to come by in 2026. Any preseason disrespect faded when IU's sleepy non-conference start still gave IU a top-5 ranking in the Associated Press Poll.
Now, though? Cignetti has something that he can play into internally instead of externally. What do I mean by externally, you ask?
Facts are stubborn things.#GOIU pic.twitter.com/bz8GryQ9AW
— Curt Cignetti (@CCignettiIU) November 5, 2026By the way, IU also still doesn't have a win against a Big Ten team with a winning record in conference play. Everybody else in the top 10 of the Playoff rankings has multiple such victories.
Again, though, it's not about what Cignetti says to the outside world. It's about what he's telling that locker room against a USC team that beat the Ohio State squad that handed IU its lone loss.
(Yes, I'm well aware that USC didn't face Julian Sayin and IU did for the vast majority of that game.)
The "us against the world" mantra usually doesn't apply to defending champs who still have a favorable Playoff path in mid-November.
Call me crazy, but IU could use a sense of urgency. It's a team that plays with its food too much and has been bailed out by one of the best defenses in the sport. Since the Rutgers laugher, IU has played in four Big Ten games, and it hasn't had more than 11 points heading into the fourth quarter.
Think about that. Not to compare everything to last year, but even in 2024, the Hoosiers averaged 40 points per conference game. That's more than two touchdowns better than this year's mark against Big Ten foes.
Where does IU really need to find an edge? Converting short-yardage situations
You'd think that an Indiana team that has developed a knack for winning one-score games would be comfortable operating in tight spots. That's not been the case. IU doesn't flip a switch.
If it were a switch, it would be better than No. 72 in FBS in red-zone scoring percentage, and it would be better than No. 71 on third-down conversion attempts. Mind you, that's a year removed from IU having the No. 1 third-down conversion rate in America.
But here's the truly alarming stat. On the season, IU has only run for a first down on 3rd-and-3 or shorter nine times. That ranks No. 126 in FBS.
IU has been banged up in the backfield. It's also perhaps why this team is averaging 3.5 yards per carry with just two rushing touchdowns during that four-game stretch.
It might not turn around against a USC run defense that's been far more competent than a typical Lincoln Riley defense. The Trojans are No. 40 in FBS against the run and No. 49 in FBS in opposing third-down conversion rate.
In previous years, one would assume that Riley's team would be as juicy of a matchup as a Cignetti-led squad could ask for, especially after the fall to No. 9. Instead, though, IU's inability to flex its muscles has defined the 2026 season.
It's possible that'll change by day's end on Saturday. What feels more likely is that IU plays in another game that's decided in the final minutes, and we'll wonder if IU has any more magic left.
If that happens, I'll wonder if Cignetti's ammo was wasted.
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