The inconsistencies of the Detroit Tigers’ starting pitching didn't begin after the trade deadline. The fact that they couldn't count on Tarik Skubal or Casey Mize was an irrecoverable blow to the rotation. Framber Valdez has not been able to be the dominant pitcher that was expected, and he has had too many ups and downs. The injury to Jack Flaherty was another hard blow, along with the fact that Justin Verlander has been able to pitch just one game and 3.2 innings this season.

Detroit has had to try to recover from all these ups and downs during the long road of the season and, the reality is that they are very far from being able to return to the postseason this year. Now, within the chaos, there are many details that should still be analyzed. When you look at the numbers revealed by the performance of the rotation since August, there are details that stand out, such as the sixth-best ERA in the league at 3.53, while they have been the third team with the most ability to induce ground balls (46.5%).

That sounds good, but it can be a little superficial if we do not go deeper into the analysis. The story that appears in reverse is that of a rotation too dependent on contact, which has considerably lowered its ability to strike batters out.

That does not mean that the new arms Detroit has had to employ are more or less talented. Nor is it about having to get outs by way of a strikeout all the time. However, experience has shown that the Tigers have been much more successful when they get strikeouts.

The decline has been most evident this year, perhaps since August, with Detroit falling to the third-lowest spot by 17 K%. And look, we can accept it from Troy Melton, who is just arriving in the league and has shown that he can control hard contact with his pitches.

Drew Anderson (19.6%) and Andrew Sears (20.0%) have not been big strikeout pitchers, but they are closer to the league average of 22.6%. The real problems begin with pitchers like Framber, Keider Montero and Jack Flaherty, who have experience in the league.

Between injuries, inconsistencies and the collapse of Framber Valdez

Even if we assume that this can be a new strategy to go deeper into games, it has not worked as it should. Valdez has fallen to 17.0 K% this year, the worst of his entire career, and since August his decline has been even worse, falling to 13.8%. Montero’s case is similar, as he has a 16.7 K% this season, the worst of his entire career and since August, he has faded to 13.7%. The overall results usually do not show that a pitcher can be more dominant when his ability to strike batters out declines.

The cases of Valdez and Montero demonstrate it, and Flaherty is not far behind. Flaherty has recorded his worst strikeout rate (26.2%) since 2023, which has been combined with the highest fly-ball rate (31.5%) and Hard-Hit rate (46.4%) of his entire career. That inability, combined with his high walk rate, led him to begin the season with a 0-7 record and a 5.81 ERA in his first 12 starts of the season. In his last seven starts, between June 2 and July 20, he went 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and his FIP improved to 3.25 before he was injured with inflammation in his right flexor.

Even with Skubal as the head of the staff, the investment in Framber Valdez was made so that he would become a second leader in the rotation, but the reality is that he has been a disappointment in this first year. With Jackson Jobe back, the Tigers added another talented arm, but they will still have to work hard to make the starting rotation work again, especially without the impact of an elite pitcher.