For the better part of a decade, Texas drivers slapped a blunt message on their bumpers aimed at the moving trucks rolling in from the West Coast: “Don’t California my Texas.”

By Tuesday night, the Lone Star State looked plenty Californian.

Democrat James Talarico, a state representative and former public school teacher, knocked off Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn. Talarico’s win snapped a three-decade Republican lock on statewide office in Texas, and voters hadn’t sent a Democrat to the US Senate from Texas in 38 years.

Democrat James Talarico, a former public school teacher and Austin state representative, defeated scandal-plagued Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton on Tuesday. Getty Images

He became the first Democrat Texans have sent to the US Senate in 38 years, winning about 55% to 43% in unofficial returns, a margin of roughly 1.2 million votes. LAURA BRETT/EPA/Shutterstock

It wasn’t close. Unofficial returns showed Talarico with about 5.45 million votes, or 55%, against roughly 4.25 million, or 43%, for Paxton, a gap of about 1.2 million votes. The AP called it around 10 p.m., and Paxton conceded within the half hour. The rout ran down the ballot, too, with Democrat Gina Hinojosa capturing the governor’s race.

Now the question rattling Texas Republicans is whether the Golden State refugees they spent years courting, and sometimes even questioning, just flipped their state.

The numbers are staggering.

Census figures show 77,161 people relocated from California to Texas in 2024 alone, making it the single busiest state-to-state move in the nation. That same year, roughly 556,156 Americans settled in Texas from other states while 483,476 left, for a net gain of 72,680.

Census data shows 77,161 people moved from California to Texas in 2024 alone, the busiest state-to-state route in the country, and Texas grew 15.8% between 2015 and 2025, more than twice the national pace. Bloomberg via Getty Images

Stretch it out and the picture gets bigger. Texas grew 15.8% between 2015 and 2025 (about 4.3 million), more than double the 6.2% national rate.

The state now counts about 31.7 million residents. A Realtor.com analysis prepared for The California Post earlier this year pegged the California-to-Texas pipeline at roughly 1 million people between 2015 and 2025.

And plenty of them apparently packed their politics along with the moving boxes.

The Post surveyed 53 people who left California for Texas within the last 10 years. Forty-two called themselves Democrats, six said they were Republicans and five identified as independents. Four of the Republicans either stayed home or backed Democrats, and the independents broke heavily for the Democratic ticket.

The exodus was driven by dollars.

Realtor.com found California’s median listing price hovering near $700,000, more than seven times the state’s median income, and graded its affordability a dismal 5 out of 100. Texas, with no state income tax and far cheaper land, was the obvious escape hatch.

A Post survey of 53 people who moved from California to Texas in the last 10 years found that 42 identified as Democrats, six as Republicans and five as independents, with the independents breaking heavily for Democratic candidates. ZUMAPRESS.com

The super-rich had their own reasons. California’s 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, a union-backed plan for a one-time 5% levy on the state’s billionaires, gathered 1.6 million signatures to reach the November ballot, and its retroactive Jan. 1, 2026 cutoff pushed tycoons to start planning exits months ahead of the vote. Uber founder Travis Kalanick said he relocated to Austin, and venture capitalist David Sacks moved from San Francisco to Austin late last year. Ultimately, on Tuesday, it was unsuccessful.

Larry Bammer, who spent his whole life in Orange County before resettling in Texas after his divorce, laid out the math to The Post in January.

“For a single person, without a doubt, you can’t get into a modest three-bedroom home for under $1 million,” he said. “You can’t have 6 acres in Orange County.”

This week, the goat-raising transplant was in a celebratory mood. When The Post reached out Wednesday, Bammer fired back a snapshot of himself posing alongside the senator-elect. 

“I think we did pretty great last night,” he told The Post.

Orange County transplant Larry Bammer, who traded a small California lot for a 6-acre Texas spread, celebrated the result by texting The Post a photo with Talarico. Courtesy of Larry Bammer

Jenny Wallace, 44, a California native and military veteran who now helps families relocate and invest in Texas, said her clients never traded in their voter registrations.

“Most of my out-of-state clients I worked with identified as Democratic voters. Some wrestled for months or even years with moving to a Republican-led state,” she told The Post. “Ultimately housing affordability, job opportunities and education mattered more than the political label.”

But Wallace said Tuesday wasn’t only about transplants. Longtime Texans are hurting, too, and soaring home values are a big reason why. Cash buyers from out of state bid up prices, she said, and neighbors who never sold a thing got stuck with fatter property tax bills.

“You’re feeling it at the gas. You’re feeling it on health care and you’re feeling it on your property tax bill,” she said. “Republicans got lazy as far as not delivering, in my opinion.”

She also blamed the candidate. The GOP-controlled Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023 over corruption and abuse-of-office allegations before the state Senate acquitted him. Prosecutors also dropped securities fraud charges against him once he accepted a pretrial diversion deal. Then his wife, Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in July 2025 and accused him of adultery, which he denied.

“Paxton’s controversies raised questions about trust,” Wallace said.

Realtor Jenny Wallace (left), a California native and military veteran, said most of her relocating clients were Democrats who moved for affordability, jobs and education without abandoning their politics. Courtesy of Jenny Wallace

The war overseas hit even closer to home. American and Israeli strikes on Iran that began Feb. 28 touched off a sprawling regional conflict, and by September the two countries were once again exchanging limited strikes. In central Texas, home to Fort Hood, military families have felt every bit of it.

Wallace said the conflict “did have a big impact because the president said we weren’t going to go to war.”

“I supported my husband on nine deployments,” she said.

Her husband has since retired. But she said families around the base who are still serving have watched marriages crack and soldiers struggle with PTSD, only to see troops sent back into the fight.

“We’re severely fatigued by that,” she said.

Wallace added that longtime Texans also soured on the GOP over property tax bills inflated by cash buyers, rising gas and health care costs, Paxton’s 2023 impeachment  and personal scandals, and fatigue in the Fort Hood community over the war with Iran. AP

Her own health has made the cost-of-living fight painfully personal.

“My kids are in college, and I’m driving back and forth for radiation following a recent stage 4 breast cancer diagnosis,” she said. “Thank God my military service has given me access to VA health care. Without it, how would I manage treatment?”

On her daily drives home from the hospital, she passed Talarico billboards hammering rents and medical bills, which she called an effective strategy.

“He knew where to put them and who was affected by that,” she said.

“Many people assumed Texas would always remain red, but neither party should take voters’ loyalty for granted,” Wallace said. “California newcomers have different views, and longtime Texans reconsidered their vote or sat out this election.”

Meanwhile, Army veteran Rob Waterman, who remains stuck in California because of his sons’ school ties, sat out the election and blames both parties for the financial squeeze on his family. Courtesy of Rob Waterman

Not everyone made it out. Rob Waterman, an Army veteran from Lakeside, Calif., still dreams of Texas but remains rooted by his sons’ schools and sports. He told The Post in January the family missed its moment.

“Our last window was probably September 2020,” he said. “We should have moved to Texas then. Now we can’t uproot their lives.”

This time around, Waterman skipped the ballot entirely, saying both parties share the blame.

“I’ve been working 12-hour shifts just to pay for what the last few elections did to us,” he said.

For Wallace, the lesson for Texas Republicans is simple.

“Moving from California to Texas changed my client’s address. It didn’t mean handing any political party a blank check.”