The Ravens injury report is troubling.

The bulk of their on-field work for the week is done, and most of their key starters either weren’t taking part at all or were not doing all that much. This could turn out to be quite the equalizer if all or more of Zay Flowers, Nnamdi Madubuike, Trey Hendrickson, Ronnie Stanley, John Simpson and Teddye Buchanan do not play.

The Saints already have shown since the middle of last season, when Tyler Shough took over as full-time starting quarterback, that they are a much-improved operation (5-5). They should have pulled off a wild comeback at Detroit last week, failing to convert a game-winning two-point conversation, getting hosed on a critical call and losing in overtime at Detroit. They play a loose style as an upstart operation and they chuck the ball over all (Shough is fourth in dropbacks in the NFL since he took over in November).

Oh, and the Ravens have been bad at home in recent years, too. There is certainly a case to be made for why the Saints could win this game. And these are the primary reasons why:

Injuries

We just touched on it. Some of these guys are not playing and even if others do, this is a rough time in a new operation to have so many key players not practicing. Especially along the offensive line, a unit that definitely suffered in pass protection, particularly interior. Vega Ioane is a rookie and had rookie moments Week 1, as expected. Jovaughn Gwyn has yet to prove he is a replacement level offensive lineman let alone a starting center. They gave Simpson $10M a year to hold some things down and I do not like the collection of interior line depth at all outside of Ethan Pocic … who should be/will be starting at center once deemed healthy enough.

If they don’t have Hendrickson and Madubuike that makes the defensive line seem just about as toothless as last year’s model that got pushed around and knocked out of the playoffs.

Explosive Play Differential

Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley was a disaster as a head coach, but he believes in a lot of the same things Ravens coach Jesse Minter does, and the Saints have similar overarching principles to Baltimore – prevent big plays at all cost and sell-out to create them. Chris Olave has 800 receiving yards in nine games played with Shough and averages nearly 15 yards per target.

The Saints had four plays of 25+ last week and didn’t give up any against an explosive Lions offense. That +4 was as good as any team in the NFL. No Flowers would be a massive blow to Baltimore’s downfield options (and starting receiver Ja’Kobi Lane is already out). An injured pass rush should allow Shough to chuck it deep. He’s dropping back 40 times a game.

Staley’s Success vs. Lamar

Lamar Jackson was 2-0 against Staley’s Chargers when he was head coach and running that defense, but it wasn’t easy and it had a lot more to do with the Chargers offense stinking and turning the ball over. Jackson has never thrown for 180 yards on him, has struggled to create explosives and this was facing him in 2021 and 2023, so it’s not like it was 2018 as Jackson was just figuring things out.

Jackson was 19/27 for 167 yards and one touchdown and two picks in the first meeting and 18/32 for 177 with one touchdown in the other. And on the ground, few others had bottled him up like Staley. Jackson ran eight times for 51 yards in the first meeting and 11 for just 39 in the second. Holding Jackson to just 4.7 per carry is excellent. Jackson had one big run for 22 yards and the other 18 rushes went for a total of 68 yards (3.78/carry).

Nothing To Lose

I don’t think the Saints come in here scared. Yeah, Lamar almost always beats NFC teams and the Ravens new offense looked like a juggernaut Week 1. But their personnel has started shifting significantly since halftime at Indianapolis and the expectation at home in Minter’s first game will be to put on a show and the pressure is decidedly on Baltimore.

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