Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change in response to buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Golden Globes Predictions Commentary (Updated: Sept. 30, 2026): The Golden Globes submission deadline is coming up on Oct. 30, the night before Halloween. Fitting, since for the next 30 days, studios get to decide what costume their movies should wear for the early phase of awards season.

The Globes split their top film prize into two genres, drama and comedy/musical and the line between them has always been drawn by strategy as much as tone. Remember, this is the same awards show that “The Martian” once won best comedy.

For the third year in a row, the comedy/musical side looks more competitive than its drama counterpart. We’re used to seeing it the other way around, and several major players still haven’t declared.

On the drama side, Christopher Nolan’s summer blockbuster “The Odyssey” and “La Bola Negra,” the acclaimed epic from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi (better known as Los Javis), lead the early pack. The Netflix title picked up the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival this month, four months after the duo won best director at Cannes. That bodes well for its run.

The race is still waiting on first reviews for a couple of contenders in the wings. Sources tell Variety that Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Three” held its first intimate, small-group screenings this past week. Early word is very positive.

And on Friday, the New York Film Festival unveils Tony Gilroy’s “Behemoth!” as its centerpiece selection, with Pedro Pascal as a former child prodigy cellist. Searchlight releases it Dec. 4, and it could make for an interesting addition to the race.

No studio has a trickier sorting job than Amazon MGM Studios this year. It holds three contenders that could all plausibly claim the drama side: Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s “Project Hail Mary” with Ryan Gosling, Peter Farrelly’s “I Play Rocky,” which finished first runner-up for TIFF’s People’s Choice Award and Bassam Tariq’s critically acclaimed “Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother,” the Orion Pictures release starring Mahershala Ali as a devout hitman.

“Your Mother” is all but certain to run in drama. So expect at least one of the other two to go the comedy route, if only to keep the studio from splitting its own vote. Our bet is “Hail Mary” goes comedy, and “Rocky” goes drama.

Focus Features has a choice to make with “Obsession,” Curry Barker’s micro-budget possession thriller that has grossed more than $400 million worldwide. If the studio follows the “Get Out” (2017) and “The Substance” (2024) playbooks, many expect a comedy push. But assess the landscape, especially for breakout star Inde Navarrette, who looks primed for a best actress Oscar nom as a possessed young woman and this pundit starts to wonder — wouldn’t a drama run make more sense?

“Obsession” will likely find recognition in cinematic and box office achievement, and Navarrette should be nominated on either side of the house. Its best picture prospects face far steeper hurdles. I think the real question is where can she win?

Drama actress is less stacked than usual. The only presumed threat to win is Sandra Hüller, who arrives with a double dose of Paweł Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” and Markus Schleinzer’s “Rose,” which earned her the best leading performance prize in Berlin. On the comedy side, most pundits and analysts see the trophy as preordained for Julianne Moore’s towering work in Jesse Eisenberg’s beloved “The Debut.” Navarrette would also have to contend with Olivia Wilde in “The Invite,” a film poised to be a big player across the board.

A drama win would position the 25-year-old Latina breakout as the alternative to Moore, and recent history shows what that moment can do. In each of the past two years, a Globes lead drama winner was someone the Actor Awards (formerly SAG) had passed over: Fernanda Torres for “I’m Still Here” and Wagner Moura for “The Secret Agent.” Both used the win as a springboard into nomination voting and landed Oscar noms. SAG voters have long been resistant to non-English-language performances. Let Hüller, whose two contenders are both in German, walk away with drama actress and she inherits that narrative.

Antoine Fuqua’s “Michael,” starring Jaafar Jackson and the first biopic ever to cross $1 billion worldwide, is also awaiting an official decision and it can go either way based on Globes history. “Bohemian Rhapsody” (2018) and Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis” (2022) were embraced as dramas, and both won lead actor there. “Ray” (2004) and “Walk the Line” (2005) went comedy/musical and did the same. Among other music-driven films, “A Star Is Born” (2018) found love as a drama, while “Inside Llewyn Davis” (2013) went comedy. There’s no rhyme or reason, so anything can happen. We think a comedy/musical run is ultimately in the cards for “Michael,” alongside a run in cinematic and box office achievement. But again, anything can still happen.

Speaking of box office, what many may not realize is that films must officially submit for the category. Nothing lands on the ballot automatically, and at the 2025 Globes, Villeneuve’s team opted to keep “Dune: Part Two” out of the box office race and vie only for best picture (drama), where it landed a nomination.

We’re keeping that in mind for the final chapter. “Dune: Part Three” opens Dec. 18, the same day as Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday” and both will have enough presales to qualify, should their studios choose to enter. The hurdle is the calendar. Motion picture nomination ballots go out to voters Nov. 24 and are due back Dec. 4, and Dec. 2 is the final date for film press conferences and uploads to the Globes’ screening platform. In practical terms, either movie would have to show itself to the several hundred voting journalists more than two weeks before opening day. Based on how Marvel has handled prerelease screenings in the past, I wouldn’t expect “Doomsday” to open its doors that early. “Dune 3” is far more likely to play in those stakes. So in other words, don’t assume anything.

Another development worth watching for is several studios are taking their animated feature contenders seriously enough to push well beyond that single category.

Laika is gearing up for a huge push behind Travis Knight’s “Wildwood,” and the stop-motion studio isn’t settling for an animated feature nom. It’s trying to change the conversation around animated movies, which too often get dismissed as “kids’ fare.” At 132 minutes, “Wildwood” is billed as the longest stop-motion feature ever made and it’s Laika’s first PG-13 release. After a Telluride conversation earlier this month with Knight and six-time Oscar-nominated cinematographer Caleb Deschanel, the studio previewed selected scenes at SCAD AnimationFest last week. The film world premieres at the BFI London Film Festival on Oct. 11, then opens AFI Fest as its U.S. premiere on Oct. 21, two days before Fathom Entertainment releases it in theaters. Sources tell Variety that in addition to animated feature, Laika plans to submit “Wildwood” for best picture (drama). The Globes reopened their top categories to animation in 2021, but the three animated films to win a top Globe (“Beauty and the Beast,” “The Lion King” and “Toy Story 2” ) all did it in comedy/musical, long before that. A drama bid is new terrain, but it also sends the message: take animation seriously.

And Laika does have some Globes history on its side with “Missing Link” pulling off an upset win for animated feature in 2020, coincidentally over “Toy Story 4,” which ultimately won the Oscar.

“Wildwood” won’t be alone. Independent Film Company’s “Tangles,” Leah Nelson’s hand-drawn adaptation of Sarah Leavitt’s graphic memoir about her mother’s Alzheimer’s, is also expected to vie in drama. The biographical Cannes sensation boasts a powerhouse producing team that includes Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Seth Rogen (destined to be an acting nominee for “The Invite”).

Every placement will ripple into the lead acting races, which the Globes also split by genre. If “Hail Mary” goes comedy, Gosling heads to the side of the house where he won his only Globe, for “La La Land.” A comedy/musical run for “Michael” gives Jackson’s screen debut a friendlier lane than drama, which is filling up fast.

Start with Robert Pattinson, who has four movies in theaters this year — “The Drama,” “The Odyssey,” “Primetime” and “Dune: Part Three.” How many noms can he collect? For now, his turn as “To Catch a Predator” host Chris Hansen in Lance Oppenheim’s “Primetime” looks like his easiest path, in actor (drama), with “The Odyssey” offering another option in supporting actor alongside his co-star John Leguizamo. The front-runners in the actor (drama) category are Andrew Scott, playing the late Ian Charleson in Simon Stone’s “Elsinore” and Pattinson’s “Odyssey” co-star Matt Damon. Behind them, John Turturro (“The Only Living Pickpocket in New York”), Pedro Pascal (“Behemoth!”), Sebastian Stan (“Fjord”) and Anthony Ippolito (“I Play Rocky”) will fight for spots.

Pattinson isn’t the only big name with more than one ticket to the Hollywood party. Penélope Cruz is also in the hunt with two possible supporting actress bids, for “The Invite” and “La Bola Negra,” plus an actress (drama) play for Florian Zeller’s “Bunker,” opposite her real-life husband, Javier Bardem, who could join her with a drama actor nom of his own.

Wilde should find enough room for her performance in “The Invite,” in addition to a directing nom for it as well. Perhaps even a third, in supporting actress for “Behemoth!” if it catches on. What a year for her.

Hüller, meanwhile, can double up in drama actress with “Fatherland” and “Rose,” and she has a path in supporting actress for “Project Hail Mary” (and I guess “Digger?”). Nothing in the Globes rules stops a performer from landing two, three or four noms in the same year.

We’re also always looking for the Globes picks that come out of nowhere and breathe life into a campaign many had underestimated. Could Gemma Chan or Channing Tatum start supporting runs for Beth de Araújo’s “Josephine?” Could Globes favorite Scarlett Johansson get one going for James Gray’s “Paper Tiger?” And I keep circling Merritt Wever in “Primetime” as a possible nom-morning shocker. It would be well deserved.

Variety’s predictions in every film category follow below. Not all category placements are confirmed, and all are subject to change.

The 84th Golden Globe nominations will be announced Monday, Dec. 7, with the ceremony, hosted by Nikki Glaser, set for Sunday, Jan. 10, 2027.

Projected nomination leaders (films): “The Odyssey” (10); “The Debut” (7); “The Invite” and “La Bola Negra” (6); “Wild Horse Nine” (5); “Dune: Part Three,” “Fjord” and “Michael” (4)

The list of Oscar predictions in all categories can be found here.

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