South Carolina State and Kentucky State head into Week 4 as the clear leaders in the HBCU Legends rankings. Both teams are ranked No. 1 on my ballot and in the BC+ model for their divisions.

After those top spots, the rankings start to differ.

Jackson State is second on my Division I ballot but fourth in the BC+ rankings. Prairie View A&M is the opposite, coming in second in the model and fourth on my list. In Division II, I have undefeated Benedict at No. 2, while BC+ ranks them fifth. Albany State is second in BC+ but sixth on my ballot.

These differences make this week’s comparison interesting. My ballot and the model give two views of the same teams, and the combined ranking shows where they match up and where they don’t.

Division I: South Carolina State sets the pace

South Carolina State’s 20-17 win over Furman kept the Bulldogs at the top of both rankings. BC+ predicted a one-point win, and they won by three.

Their rating of minus-19.3 puts them 3.7 points ahead of Prairie View A&M in the model.

After South Carolina State, the next three teams are close together: Prairie View at minus-23.0, Alabama State at minus-23.3, and Jackson State. All three teams have the same consensus average of 3.0.

The BC+ tiebreaker puts Prairie View second, Alabama State third, and Jackson State fourth. Jackson State fourth.

This difference is important. Jackson State ends up fourth in the consensus because of the tiebreaker, even though I ranked them second.

Division I consensus top 10

1. South Carolina State: Mosley No. 1; BC+ No. 1; consensus average 1.0; BC+ rating minus-19.3.
2. Prairie View A&M: Mosley No. 4; BC+ No. 2; average 3.0; rating minus-23.0.
3. Alabama State: Mosley No. 3; BC+ No. 3; average 3.0; rating minus-23.3.
4. Jackson State: Mosley No. 2; BC+ No. 4; average 3.0; rating minus-24.0.
5. Delaware State: Mosley No. 5; BC+ No. 5; average 5.0; rating minus-32.0.
6. North Carolina Central: Mosley No. 6; BC+ No. 8; average 7.0; rating minus-34.9.
7. Alcorn State: Mosley No. 8; BC+ No. 7; average 7.5; rating minus-34.8.
8. Bethune-Cookman: Unranked on Mosley’s ballot; BC+ No. 6; average 9.0; rating minus-33.7.
9. Morgan State: Mosley No. 9; BC+ No. 9; average 9.0; rating minus-35.3.
10. Grambling State: Mosley No. 7; unranked in the BC+ top 10; average 9.5; rating minus-36.5.

Just outside the top 10, Texas Southern and Howard both average 11.0. Texas Southern wins the tiebreaker with a minus-36.4 rating, compared to Howard’s minus-38.2.

Jackson State and Prairie View frame the debate

Jackson State defeated TuskeJackson State beat Tuskegee 41-7, while Prairie View lost to Stephen F. Austin 31-10. I ranked the Tigers ahead of the Panthers for Week 4, but BC+ has them the other way around.  The results show that those results registered.

Prairie View’s rating declined by 2.0 points, while Jackson State’s slipped by 0.3. The Tigers’ 34-point victory still fell short of the model’s projected 41.3-point margin.

A team can win and still see its rating go down. BC+ looks at how teams perform compared to its expectations, so a big win doesn’t always mean a higher rating.

Morgan State also had a notable result, beating Towson 41-26 when BC+ had predicted a 2.2-point loss. The Bears gained 1.4 rating points and are ninth on both lists for Week 4.

Bethune-Cookman is another point of disagreement. The Wildcats are sixth in BC+ but not in my top 10. Grambling State and Howard are on my ballot, while Texas Southern and Bethune-Cookman are in the model’s top picks but not on my list.

Division II: Kentucky State leads, but the challengers split the lists

Kentucky State stays at No. 1 in both rankings after beating Saginaw Valley State 21-17. The Thorobreds’ minus-46.5 rating is just ahead of Albany State’s minus-47.1 in BC+.

The consensus ranking differs slightly. Virginia Union, Johnson C. Smith, and Benedict all average 3.5, so their BC+ ratings decide who is second, third, and fourth. Albany State is next at No. 5 with an average of 4.0.

Division II consensus top 10

1. Kentucky State: Mosley No. 1; BC+ No. 1; consensus average 1.0; BC+ rating minus-46.5.
2. Virginia Union: Mosley No. 4; BC+ No. 3; average 3.5; rating minus -51.7.
3. Johnson C. Smith: Mosley No. 3; BC+ No. 4; average 3.5; rating minus-51.8.
4. Benedict: Mosley No. 2; BC+ No. 5; average 3.5; rating minus-53.5.
5. Albany State: Mosley No. 6; BC+ No. 2; average 4.0; rating minus-47.1.
6. Edward Waters: Mosley No. 5; BC+ No. 6; average 5.5; rating minus-54.9.
7. West Virginia State: Mosley No. 7; BC+ No. 7; average 7.0; rating minus-56.5.
8. Virginia State: Mosley No. 8; BC+ No. 8; average 8.0; rating minus-57.7.
9. Fayetteville State: Mosley No. 10; BC+ No. 10; average 10.0; rating minus-58.7.
10. Allen: Unranked on Mosley’s ballot; BC+ No. 9; average 10.5; rating minus-58.0.

Just outside the top 10: Central State is ninth on my ballot, but not in the BC+ top 10, so it also averages 10.5. Allen wins the tiebreaker by 2.9 BC+ rating points.

Benedict and Albany State have the biggest difference between my ballot and the model.

• Benedict beat Fort Valley State 34-33 and stays second on my ballot. BC+ had expected a 14.7-point win, so the Tigers’ rating dropped by 2.7 points. Albany State beat Allen 32-21 and is still second in the model, which is four spots higher than on my ballot. This four-place gap is the biggest among Division II teams in both top 10s.p 10s.
• Edward Waters had the biggest rating jump among Division II teams. Their 55-30 win over Savannah State gave them a 2.8-point boost. The Tigers are fifth on my ballot and sixth in BC+.
• Virginia Union also improved its spot with a 42-0 win over Bluefield State, gaining 1.9 rating points. Their small lead over Johnson C. Smith in the ratings decides their order in the consensus.

Week 4 starts with two clear leaders. The race behind South Carolina State and Kentucky State is still wide open, and the differences between my ballot and BC+ show where the next results could change the rankings.

HBCU LEGENDS PODCAST