Although the Houston Astros have proven to be uncompetitive in their last two postseason appearances—they have a six-game losing streak that extends back to 2023—I have thoughts opposite to the idea that the Wild Card Series could be the worst scenario for them.

Each recent version of this Houston team has its biggest opportunity in a short playoff series. The fact that they have not been able to win any game does not change that; quite the opposite. It reinforces the idea that even in the best possible scenario, they have also fallen short of the odds.

We cannot expect Houston to be better if it advances to play a five-game series. It is unreasonable to think that when the Astros have needed the bullpen to absorb 37 1/3 innings, 69% of the 54 innings they have accumulated in the active six-game losing streak in the postseason since Game 6 of the ALCS against the Texas Rangers.

Assuming the offense had fixed Houston’s deficit problem with explosive production, I do not think they would have gone very far with a starting pitching staff that cannot sustain itself and a worn-down group of relievers. During the streak, only two Astros starters have managed to complete at least five innings.

The most recent was Hunter Brown, who pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowed one earned run, and left without a decision in Houston’s 5-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of the 2024 Wild Card Series. The previous one? We have to go back to Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS, when Framber Valdez completed five innings with three runs allowed, but the Astros ended up falling 9-2.

There are three other starts in which the starter couldn't get more than two outs: Cristian Javier, who was able to get just one out in Game 7 of the 2023 ALCS, and this year, when AJ Blubaugh and Brown exploded after getting two outs and one out, respectively.

When the Astros pulled within 4-3 in Game 2 against the White Sox, manager Joe Espada had already had to turn to Peter Lambert, who was expected to be the starter in case the series extended to a Game 3. Of course, Espada didn't make that move out of desperation. His job is to try to get them to win. There was no way to do it, and as long as the Astros do not change this history by strengthening their starting rotation and making better investments, they will not be able to get out of the slump either.

The dilemma began long before October

If we had to make a timeline to find where the disaster began, we would have to go much further back. It is not difficult to answer that question, since the events are in front of our eyes. Houston has lost both the depth and the impact of its starters, with more and more regressions from 2024 to date.

As you can see here, the chaos is well documented. The Astros had only one pitcher with at least 150 innings in 2026: Peter Lambert, who threw 155 2/3. We know there were several pitchers on the injured list and that, sometimes, it is impossible to prevent all those problems that appear without warning. But you can only compete against those problems if you manage to build a strong roster and have prospects in progress whom you can help.

The most curious thing about all of this is that Lambert was an unknown before Opening Day, but in a short time, he became the revelation who saved the rotation with his contribution and consistency.

According to the table, compiled with data from FanGraphs, Lambert was also the only pitcher who surpassed 2.0 fWAR on a rotation that had only five starters capable of accumulating a minimum of 50 innings. However, of all of them, the only one who surpassed 100 innings besides Lambert was Brown, who recorded 107 1/3.

As long as Houston does not make a radical change in the way it approaches the problem with its starting rotation, there will not be enough hope of seeing the team advance in October.