You've heard of offseason whispers. What you hear less often are offseason shouts. David Mirkovic’s 2026 summer and fall have been characterized by high-volume chatter, and not even a foot fracture that required surgery and extensive (and ongoing) recovery have quieted the excitement. Coaches, teammates and analysts have all – and almost exclusively – had only great things to say about Mirkovic and his future.

NBA Draft analyst Sam Vecenie high on David Mirkovic’s 2026-27 season

Illinois’ coaches have sung Mirkovic’s praises with such vigor that NBA Draft expert Sam Vecenie’s impression is that Mirkovic “is as good as any player” the Illini have had during Brad Underwood's tenure in Champaign. Mind you, this is a program that has been loaded with stars: Ayo Dosunmu, Kofi Cockburn, Terrence Shannon Jr., Keaton Wagler and more. 

But does Mirkovic’s injury change things? Well, for Vecenie, it does – but only a little. Vecenie said that Mirkovic would likely have been his pick for Preseason Player of the Year (not just in the Big Ten, but across the country), but now he sees him instead as a projected All-American – oh, and also as a first-round pick in the 2027 NBA Draft.

Two Illini land in the first round of Sam Vecenie’s 2027 NBA mock draft

In Vecenie’s mock draft, Mirkovic comes off the board at No. 16 to the Indiana Pacers. Freshman guard Quentin Coleman lasts until just No. 7 (Atlanta Hawks).

Is Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft projection for David Mirkovic overambitious?

Even in light of the injury, all signs point to Mirkovic being even better this season than he was as a freshman, when he averaged 13.3 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists in under 30 minutes a game. But No. 16? The primary concern is Mirkovic’s athleticism. Vertically and laterally, Mirkovic checks in below NBA standards.

So what exactly does that mean in terms of his projection? Well, defense is going to be the first problem. Who will Mirkovic check at the next level? At 6-foot-9, he isn’t quite tall enough to handle NBA 5s. And the vast majority of 4s in the league are too athletic for Mirkovic to stay in front of.

On the flip side, Mirkovic has the strength of an ox, plus length and elite anticipation, and he plays really hard. So he can survive against most undersized 5s. And he’ll be able to maybe hold up against 4s who aren’t elite shooters or cutters.

Offensively, the potential problems are his first step and his at-the-rim finishing. Two questions: 1) Can he consistently beat defenders off the dribble? And 2) will his finishing package translate to the NBA?

Mirkovic is just quick enough to get a step at the college level. Then he uses his frame to press that opening and get to the rack. The initial angle will be tougher to come by against NBA-level athletes.

His finishing ability may be more concerning, though. Mirkovic has a soft touch and a surprisingly deep finishing package. But everything starts with him creating space and finding an angle. Will his patience, savvy and physicality be enough to generate those looks? We certainly can trust that his athleticism won’t buy him any freebies.

But there’s also this: Mirkovic is 6-foot-9 and shot 37.5 percent from three as a freshman. He is an elite playmaker from the post, mid-post and perimeter. He is one of the best rebounders in college basketball (despite his lack of vertical explosion).

NBA front offices have come to value results. The days of routinely taking flyers on high-upside players with elite athleticism and unpolished games are gone. If Mirkovic leads Illinois on a successful campaign, his shooting efficiency holds and he becomes even just a touch lighter on his feet, then he’ll be worthy of a first-round draft pick.

His positional size, shooting, playmaking, basketball IQ and unquantifiable feel for the game is far too rich a blend to be overlooked. Still, none of that answers the very real athleticism question marks. Because of that, it still may be hard for him to crack the top 20 even in a wide-open draft class – though Vecenie already seems convinced.