The 2026 college football season has been a solid one for the Iowa State Cyclones thus far.

After picking up a hard-fought victory in a shootout against the West Virginia Mountaineers, 45-42, they are 3-2 on the season and 1-1 in the Big 12. Another massive test awaits, as the Cyclones are set to face their third ranked opponent of the season, the BYU Cougars, in Week 6.

Iowa State has fallen short in their first two attempts to knock off a ranked team as an underdog, losing to the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Cy-Hawk rivalry game at Kinnick Stadium and being defeated by the Utah Utes at Jack Trice Stadium in Week 4.

Despite those two losses, it is becoming clear the Cyclones are further ahead than many people thought they were coming into the season. Halfway to being bowl-eligible, they are starting to garner attention from analysts as a team that will receive an invite to play in a bowl in a few months.

What bowl game is Iowa State predicted to be in?

One analyst who has seen enough is Kyle Bonagura of ESPN. He does a weekly piece on College Football Playoff and bowl game predictions along with Mark Schlabach. While his colleague isn’t sold on Iowa State yet, Bonagura is.

In their Week 5 roundup ahead of Week 6 matchups, Bonagura has predicted that the Cyclones will be playing in the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana, on Tuesday, Dec. 22, at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Jimmy Rogers and his team are projected to face off against a Big Ten foe; no, not former head coach Matt Campbell and the Penn State Nittany Lions, even though that would make for record-breaking viewership numbers for a non-College Football Playoff bowl game.

Instead, they are matched up with the Washington Huskies. Schlabach has Washington in this game as well against a Big 12 opponent, but has predicted it will be the UCF Knights, not the Cyclones, representing the conference.

Earning a bowl bid in Year 1 would be quite an accomplishment for Rogers. He inherited a roster that was stripped down to the studs with more than 50 players hitting the transfer portal and zero starters returning from last season’s 8-win team.

It is a similar situation to what he oversaw with the Washington State Cougars in 2025. That roster featured more than 80 new players, but the coaching staff got the most out of them, earning a bowl bid and a victory, with Jesse Bobbit, the Iowa State defensive coordinator, as interim head coach after Rogers accepted the job in Ames.