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Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump Among America's Top Pollsters

1 week ago 22

President Joe Biden has a razor thin lead over former President Donald Trump in the race to the White House, according to VoteHub's average of America's most reliable pollsters.

In March, the incumbent and the former president won enough primary races to secure, respectively, the Democratic and Republican nominations in the 2024 presidential election. Polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.

According to poll tracker VoteHub, which aggregates polling averages of polls by highly rated pollsters given a rating of "A" or "B" in the last 28 days, Biden holds a very slim lead of 0.1 percent over Trump with 45.9 percent of the vote to 45.8 percent.

While this represents a small decline from the beginning of the month when Biden was ahead by 0.2 percent with 46.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent, the number shows Biden maintaining the slight lead he has held since the beginning of the month, just days after Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a $130,000 hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Joe Biden
President Joe Biden delivers remarks on an executive order limiting asylum at the White House on June 4, 2024, in Washington, D.C. The president holds a slim lead over Donald Trump according to a national... Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

A number of polls have suggested Trump's guilty verdict is hampering his chances at electoral success and this national average may suggest the same.

A new Morning Consult poll, for instance, has also shown Trump losing a previous lead over his rival. On May 28, Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points, but he is now behind him by 1 percentage point. With Biden enjoying 44 percent of the potential vote share to Trump's 43 percent, this marks the first time the Democrat has led the Republican in that poll since early May.

The survey of 10,260 registered voters was conducted June 7-9. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Meanwhile, polling and forecasting website FiveThirtyEight has predicted that Biden will win the election, using a simulation forecast.

Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email to comment outside of normal business hours.

While national polls are interesting, the 2024 presidential election will likely be determined by just a handful of key swing states due to the U.S.'s Electoral College system which awards each state a certain number of votes, based on population.

A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.

Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said there have been "ups and downs for both candidates."

"It has been a week of ups and downs for both candidates," he previously told Newsweek. "There's a suggestion that Trump's 34 felony convictions aren't playing well with independents, and Biden's presence on the Normandy beaches to commemorate D-Day played well with veterans and older voters.

"But the horrors in Gaza undermine Biden's foreign policy credentials, and the Hunter Biden gun trial is sucking away positive oxygen at home. Meanwhile, Trump is enjoying the challenger's advantage at the moment of being able to get back on the road, dispute everything Biden does while being accountable for nothing.

"The polls all remain within the margin of error in a tight race between two unpopular candidates. We're still in the phony war with nothing much mattering polls-wide until the candidates get into their first 1:1 debate."

Biden and Trump will square off for the first of two scheduled debates on June 27 in Atlanta. The presidential election will take place on November 5.

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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