Cross your fingers that diplomats on the sidelines of this week’s UN confab make some progress on reaching a real cease-fire in Russia’s war on Ukraine, but the central issue is when Vladimir Putin decides to pause.

Right now, the autocrat still insists on major territorial concessions: He wants Ukraine to hand him the strategic Donbas, on top of the areas he’s actually been able to conquer and hold.

Otherwise, Putin’s still inclined to fight on because he doesn’t care how much blood his own troops shed, and counts the suffering of all Ukrainians, civilians very much included, as a plus.

He surely dislikes how dependent his war has left Moscow on Beijing, but also expects to rebalance the relationship later.

And he’s still betting the West will give up on providing Kyiv what it needs to fight on, or that something else will break his way.

President Donald Trump hasn’t always discouraged that point of view, though he can make a strong argument that all he’s really done is show Putin respect — a perfectly legit negotiating tactic.

On this front, it’s notable that Trump has switched from telling Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky to “stop ⁠knocking out diesel fuel in Russia” (which pushes up global prices) to sighing over how Russia has “lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry” — which sounds like he’s tweaking Putin instead, as well as pointing out reason for the West to think the Kremlin’s will may be fading.

“This ridiculous and never ending War with Ukraine must be ended,” the prez continued, another telling turn of phrase.

Putin also has to worry about unrest at home, but the chief key to peace is to convince him the West isn’t anywhere close to giving up.

Last week’s $2.7 billion US arms sale to Ukraine was one good step, as is Europe’s continued support and the long-awaited passage of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sanctions law.

Pray Vlad gets the message soon.