From power outages to constant boos from the home crowd at Doak Campbell Stadium, the clock is ticking on Mike Norvell’s time at Florida State, and Kalshi’s college football market continues pushing that narrative. After the Seminoles lost 27-24 to SMU on Labor Day, Kalshi moved Norvell to an 85% chance to be "out" at Florida State by February.

Norvell’s 85% of being out price leads every coach on the board. That is up 25% from before the SMU game. Kalshi settles the market on whether Norvell is still with the program come February. A $10 trade on him not being with the team profits $1.63. He could be fired, resign or a mutual agreement to separate.

Will Mike Norvell be “out” of Florida State before February?

• Yes 85%
• No 20%

Only getting worse

The longer Mike Norvell remains in Tallahassee, the worse things will get. Fans were already upset after Florida State’s 34-17 Week 0 win over New Mexico State, where they were 31.5-point favorites but struggled to win. Now, they went into the SMU game a +2.5-point underdog at home and played an extremely ugly game despite only losing 27-24.

Ashton Daniels looked uneasy when throwing the ball, finishing 12/23 for 125 yards and a touchdown. The third-down play calling was atrocious, converting just two of 15 attempts. The offensive line also could not hold up, allowing three sacks.

Turnovers were one of the few bright spots, and Florida State still failed to cash them in. This loss looks a lot worse knowing that this was the first time in college football history that a team lost a game outright with a +4 turnover margin, bringing the record to 1-40.

Making matters even worse, over the offseason, Norvell and his staff recruited and landed former Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for an estimated $650k NIL deal. One of the largest deals for a running back in the nation. Wisner did not play a single snap in the loss and only had four carries in Week 0.

With the loss, Norvell is now 8-18 overall and 3-14 in conference play over the last three seasons. Florida State is headed for a Week 2 bye before heading to Tuscaloosa for a road game against Alabama.

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