The Florida State Seminoles are closing in on a massive home game against the No. 19 SMU Mustangs. With a ranked opponent traveling to Tallahassee early in the year for the second straight season, the Seminoles have an opportunity to make another statement.

FSU will have to be much more organized when SMU walks into Doak Campbell Stadium. While the Mustangs are playing their first game of the year, the program has established itself in the ACC in just two seasons, compiling a 20-7 overall record (14-2 ACC) since 2024.

READ MORE: Mike Norvell Faces a Tenure-Defining Moment as FSU Football Hosts No. 19 SMU

SMU is led by star quarterback Kevin Jennings, who is more than capable as a passer and rusher. The program is replacing some of its top receivers and has lost experience on defense.

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on SMU.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

The first taste of Florida State football wasn't what fans were expecting. Last Saturday against New Mexico State, the Seminoles were sluggish, inconsistent, and not on the same page.

There were far too many miscommuncations in the defensive backfield and along the offensive line. Ashton Daniels was fine, yet unspectactular, and didn't do much to impact the game over the final three quarters.

The defensive line wasn't able to create a ton of havoc, and though part of that was due to New Mexico State getting the ball out quick, Florida State should've made more noise against this caliber of opponent.

Whatever. The first game is in the past. It's clear the Seminoles have a ton of things to clean up.

While SMU certainly looks like the better team on paper, Florida State does have an advantage. The Seminoles have actually faced off against an opponent on a real game day. They understand what needs to change going into Labor Day.

On the other hand, SMU's first game will be on Monday night, and the program is breaking in new pieces that haven't played together side-by-side in the heat of battle.

Kevin Jennings is a real threat, but he has struggled on the road and has a tendency to turn the ball over. He's thrown 24 interceptions over the last two seasons.

Traditionally, the Mustangs stop the run at a high-level, get after the passer, and force turnovers, even if the personnel is going through a transition. SMU also has a pair of all-conference offensive linemen, including one of the better left tackles Florida State will see this season.

My brain is telling me not to do this. My heart is telling me not to do this. But those are the same feelings I had before Alabama came to town last season.

I'm going to do it.

Somehow, someway, Florida State carves out just enough to pull out an upset victory on Labor Day. The Seminoles find life on the ground, Ashton Daniels manages the game, and the defense steps up in the final quarter.

Ultimately, Gabe Panikowski delivers the win with a 37-yard field goal from the left hash as time expires.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 1-0

Seminoles 27, Mustangs 26

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

It’s pretty simple in this one.

FSU is going to have to fix its messes in the secondary that showed up last weekend and operate in much better fashion to deal with Kevin Jennings. Jennings is the most lethal when on the roll0out and keeping his eyes downfield.

I think it’ll take a few quarters for Rhett Lashlee to get SMU’s offense going, with a lot of newcomers, so Florida State’s defense will have to take advantage while they can. Also, pass rush, pass rush, pass rush! No more patty cake.

If Ashton Daniels can take care of the ball and the running game can get going, the Seminoles will have a chance to make the upset but I’m unsure how much they can keep up points wise, specifically in the second half.

I’ve got FSU giving a good fight in the first half, but the Seminoles won’t have enough to get it done in the second half.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 1-0

Mustangs 31, Seminoles 20

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

Truly one of the more confusing spreads of the opening weekend of college football. All signs point to SMU having the talent advantage at nearly every level, FSU was lackluster in Week 0 against New Mexico State, and Kevin Jennings is a legitimately good quarterback. For this to only be around a 3-point spread has people wondering what Vegas knows.

I’m not taking the bait, though. Even if SMU is replacing their entire front four from last season, a team that was elite at stopping the run, I still expect them to load up against the run and make Ashton Daniels beat them.

To me, if you’re relying on Ashton Daniels to win you games, you’re going to lose games. The NMSU rewatch was not kind to Daniels, and I already wasn’t high on him. I do expect Daniels to use his legs more in this game, but part of that just may be from his running for his life behind a subpar offensive line.

I’ll have the ‘Noles suffering their first loss of the season.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 1-0

Mustangs 31, Seminoles 20

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

SMU will be replacing Jordan Hudson and Romello Brinson, who combined for 1,404 receiving yards last season, but Yamir Knight returns after catching 54 passes for 637 yards and five touchdowns. The Mustangs also have multiple options at tight end, including former FSU TE Randy Pittman Jr.

SMU allowed just 20.5 points and 111 rushing yards per game last season, but gave up 283.2 yards per game through the air.

Florida State will have to keep Kevin Jennings off the field by creating pressure and locking down the secondary issues that reared their ugly head in Week 0.

If that doesn’t happen, the game risks turning into a shootout, and I think Jennings will have the upper hand.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 1-0

Mustangs 31, Seminoles 24

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Despite witnessing a final score that was close to what I had predicted, I left the FSU-New Mexico State matchup disappointed. Florida State ultimately won by 17 points, but the team's performance on both sides of the ball left much to be desired. Most onlookers would have probably agreed that the Seminoles looked like a team with more problems than answers.

Personally, I went into the game hopeful that Norvell's team would look like a finely tuned machine capable of handling a lesser opponent, but I left Doak Campbell Stadium far less confident and far more worried about the challenges to come.

Entering the week, I was shocked to find out that the SMU-FSU spread only favored Rhett Lashlee's highly touted squad by 3 points. If you had asked me for a score prediction last Saturday night, I would have guessed something in the ballpark of a 30-point win for the Mustangs. As the week has progressed and I have had more time to mull it over (and maybe huff some of the "hopium" that's out there), however, I've become more conflicted about Monday night's result.

Sure, the product that we've seen on the field so far is not likely to cut it against the 19th-ranked Mustangs. Offensive line play was subpar, the defensive secondary was porous, and the play calling was head-scratching for most of the night. The 'Noles will not fare any better in any of these areas against an SMU team that is deep with talent. And yet, both the small spread and Norvell's history in Week 1 games give me pause.

When no one gave the 'Noles much of a chance against a ranked UNC team in 2021, Norvell's team pulled it off. When the country expected Jayden Daniels and the LSU Tigers to push FSU around with ease in 2022 and then enact revenge in 2023, the Seminoles pulled it off. When 'Bama strolled into Tallahassee in Week 1 in 2025 and no one thought FSU was capable of winning that game after a 2-10 record in the prior season, the Florida State Seminoles pulled it off.

Time and again, and against all odds, Norvell has had his teams prepared for the big games early in the season. Sure, the rest of the season may go by the wayside, but there's something about that Week 1 game. Somehow, when no one gives them much of a chance, the 'Noles find a way to come out victorious.

Come Monday night, I think we'll see a passionate Florida State team playing at a much higher level than what we witnessed in Week 0. With Doak Campbell Stadium at max capacity and the broader college football world tuning in, I'm confident that Mike Norvell and his team will rise to the occasion and trade blows back and forth with SMU over the course of the night.

I believe this game will be closer than most expect, and the 'Noles will be presented with opportunities to take the lead late. However, untimely lapses in composure and self-inflicted errors will prove costly for the home team and give the Mustangs just enough of a window to escape Tallahassee with a victory.

2026 Season Prediction Record: 1-0

Mustangs 34, Seminoles 27

CONSENSUS: SMU (4-1)

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