The No. 2 Oregon Ducks earned their highest preseason AP Poll ranking in program history on Monday. But a spot at No. 2 in the nation could also land Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s squad on a different, less flattering list. 

Oregon found itself at No. 8 on Tuesday as part of Brett McMurphy of On3’s annual ranking of the AP voters’ top 25 most overrated teams since 2014. The list tracks every team based on their rise or fall from their pre- to post-season AP ranking and, for the third time in as many years, the Ducks are among the top 10.

Is the label of underachiever justified as the Ducks enter year five under Lanning? Or is another top 10 ranking a holdover result from past Oregon coaching regimes? Think former Ducks coaches Mario Cristobal and Mark Helfrich.

McMurphy’s Top 25 Most Overrated:

1. Auburn
2. LSU
3. USC
4. Clemson
5. Wisconsin
6. Florida State
7. Texas A&M
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma
10. Michigan
11. Alabama
12. Stanford
13. UCLA
14. South Carolina
15. Georgia
16. Penn State
17. North Carolina
18. Florida
19. Miami
20. Texas
21. Notre Dame
22. Kansas State
23. Arkansas
24. Ohio State
25. Iowa State

It took eight seasons under Oregon’s previous three coaches for the program to develop a reputation of failing to live up to expectations, which Lanning is now tasked with reversing.

Helfrich’s Ducks fell from No. 7 to No. 19 in 2015 and No. 24 to unranked a year later. Willie Taggart bridged the gap between Helfrich, and Cristobal then underperformed in 2018 (No. 24 to unranked), 2020 (No. 9 to unranked) and 2021 (No. 11 to No. 22).

Lanning wasn’t immune during his debut season in Eugene, dropping from a preseason No. 11 mark to No. 15. But in the years since, the Ducks have stood their ground.

Since 2023, Oregon has improved or maintained its preseason ranking in three consecutive years, moving from No. 15 to No. 6, No. 3 to No. 3 and No. 7 to No. 4. That includes a College Football Playoff quarterfinals loss to Ohio State in 2024 and last season’s drubbing at the hands of eventual champion Indiana in the semifinals. Yet, despite the turnaround, Oregon continues to find itself on McMurphy’s list.

In fact, a drawback to a No. 2 preseason AP ranking is that anything short of a CFP championship game appearance will almost certainly negatively impact its standing on McMurphy’s list.

Oregon can go 11-1 and win the Big Ten, yet still see its rankings topple without a top-two showing in the AP Poll. McMurphy's chart measures the gap between preseason hype and end-of-the-year reality, leaving virtually zero margin to rise and all the room in the world to tumble. Whereas a No. 4 finish was an improvement last year, a No. 4 final ranking this season actually hurts Oregon on the list.

Which might be considered a good problem. Six of the last seven national champions (Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Michigan and Ohio State) all make appearances on the list, with the Wolverines sitting two spots behind Oregon at No. 10 overall.

The Ducks are one of seven Big Ten schools on the list, while 10 SEC schools also made the cut, meaning that the two conferences account for 17 of the 25 spots.

Under Lanning, the Ducks have finished the same or higher in the AP final poll in three consecutive years, which suggests the program is beginning to buck the trends of McMurphy’s list. Despite the connotations of the list, it’s arguably an enviable position to be in and one that doesn’t weigh too heavily on the coach’s mind as he prepares for Oregon’s third season in the Big Ten.

“The people that make those polls have nothing to do with the results on the field,” Lanning said during Tuesday’s press conference. “So let’s focus on the things that we control.”

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