After a long and eventful summer in the NBA, the 2026–27 season is almost here.

We are less than five weeks away from opening night. Teams will begin reporting to training camp in just a handful of days, which means it’s time to begin our season prediction series.

Let’s get right into the good stuff. Here are predictions for how the standings will look at the end of the season from Sports Illustrated’s NBA team, including picks for the No. 1 seed and last year’s playoff teams to fall out of postseason contention. Come back next week when we publish our picks to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.

Jump to a conference:

1. Predicting the Western Conference standings
2. Predicting the Eastern Conference standings

Predicting the Western Conference standings

Here are the predicted playoff and play-in teams from each writer on Sports Illustrated’s NBA team:

• Chris Mannix: No. 1 seed Spurs, No. 2 Thunder, No. 3 Lakers, No. 4 Rockets, No. 5 Nuggets, No. 6 Timberwolves. Play-in tournament: No. 7 Jazz, No. 8 Suns, No. 9 Warriors, No. 10 Trail Blazers.

• Liam McKeone: No. 1 seed Spurs, No. 2 Thunder, No. 3 Lakers, No. 4 Timberwolves, No. 5 Nuggets, No. 6 Rockets. Play-in tournament: No. 7 Suns, No. 8 Jazz, No. 9 Trail Blazers, No. 10 Warriors.

• Blake Silverman: No. 1 seed Spurs, No. 2 Thunder, No. 3 Timberwolves, No. 4 Rockets, No. 5 Nuggets, No. 6 Lakers. Play-in tournament: No. 7 Jazz, No. 8 Mavericks, No. 9 Warriors, No. 10 Suns.

And here are the official Sports Illustrated predictions for the 2026–27 Western Conference standings, an average of all three writers’ picks:

Which team will win the No. 1 seed in the West?

Chris Mannix: San Antonio. Where are the Spurs’ weaknesses? They have the NBA’s best player, arguably its best guard trio, and added everyone’s favorite veteran, Tobias Harris, to boost the front court and locker room. Even in a loaded conference, it would be unsurprising to see a healthy San Antonio team flirt with 70 wins. They are that damn good.

Liam McKeone: San Antonio. The Thunder have earned this honor for two seasons running, but the Spurs are coming for their throne. San Antonio will be exceptionally motivated to avenge its painful Finals loss, and leaps can be reasonably expected from the various young contributors who made last year’s deep run possible—even from Victor Wembanyama, who is already a top-three player in the league. OKC will certainly make another push, but after a few deep playoff runs they will wind up taking the foot off the gas down the stretch, opening the door for the Spurs to claim the top seed. 

Blake Silverman: San Antonio. Wemby fully arrived last year and enters the new season a bona fide MVP candidate as long as he remains healthy. Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle will get better and, no matter the playoff struggles, De’Aaron Fox still gives you close to 20 points a night. I’m particularly bullish on the addition of Tobias Harris, who brings a veteran to the forward vacancy who can still get you a bucket when you need it most. The Thunder will be right there with San Antonio, but it feels like just the start of Wemby’s world.

Which Western Conference playoff team from last year is most likely to miss the playoffs?

Chris Mannix: Phoenix. Coin flip between the Blazers and Suns, but I’m going to take Phoenix. Miles Bridges makes them more versatile on the perimeter but they are going to miss Grayson Allen’s shooting, and I don’t trust that front line. The Jazz and Pelicans figure to be vastly improved and I’m betting one (or both) sneaks into the postseason, knocking the Suns out. 

• Anonymous scouts break down the Pacific Division: Clippers | Kings | Lakers | Suns | Warriors

Liam McKeone: Portland. Technically, the Trail Blazers added more talent than they lost over the offseason but it’s hard to buy the vision. Deni Avdija is a little too reliant on a generous whistle to be seen as a No. 1 playoff option, Damian Lillard is 36 years old coming off a torn Achilles and the team’s gamble on Ja Morant could go any number of directions. It’s a very tricky roster to balance for a first-year head coach in Micah Nori—and any missed time from his competent perimeter defenders (Jrue Holiday and Toumani Camara) means they’ll struggle mightily to get stops when it matters. There are a lot more ways for Portland’s season to go wrong than right. 

Blake Silverman: Phoenix. I like Phoenix better than last year, but the Suns could be the victim of improved competition. Miles Bridges came in via trade, but Phoenix lost considerable depth after dealing away Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale. Luke Kennard brings an elite shooting skill set, but there’s a worry that Phoenix’s offseason just wasn’t enough to move the needle. The Suns were frisky last year thanks to Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks’s career season, and Jalen Green was a hero in the play-in tournament to get the Suns into the playoffs. With Bridges a free agent next year and Green’s future in question ahead of a $36 million player option, I could see somewhat of a transition year in Phoenix.

Which Western Conference non-playoff team from last year is most likely to make the postseason?

Chris Mannix: Utah. Utahans, your long national nightmare is over. The Jazz, finally, look poised to make a big leap. The Jaren Jackson Jr.-Lauri Markkanen frontcourt is dynamic, Ace Bailey will make a big jump and Keyonte George will continue to push towards All-Star status. Will Hardy, an excellent coach with an awful record, will get to show his chops. It should be a fun year in Salt Lake City.

Liam: Dallas. I could see the Mavericks getting spicy. If Kyrie Irving can return to his prior level of elite scoring, he’ll be flanked by a massive supporting cast made up of strong wings—and, of course, Cooper Flagg. Assuming the reigning Rookie of the Year makes the star-level leap we expect, Dallas has two top scoring options and multiple avenues towards an elite defense. Rookie coach Dusty May is certainly a question mark, but he feels better-suited than most to find swift success at the NBA level given the pro-style mentality his Michigan team embodied last year en route to a national title. Even in a mighty tough conference, the Mavs have the tools needed to compete if it all comes together as Masai Ujiri plans. 

Blake: Utah. Give me the Jazz. Whether Utah is ready to seriously compete in the West is the big question. However, it’s certain that the roster is much better than it was at this time last year. Jaren Jackson Jr. will have his first real run as a member of the Jazz after he was acquired at the February trade deadline. No. 2 pick in the draft Darryn Peterson has real upside to be an elite scorer in the league. Plus, Keyonte George keeps getting better and could be an All-Star candidate. If Peterson is ready sooner than expected, the Jazz could take a real jump with a solid squad around Lauri Markkanen.

Predicting the Eastern Conference standings

Here are the predicted playoff and play-in teams from each writer on Sports Illustrated’s NBA team:

• Chris Mannix: No. 1 seed Celtics, No. 2 76ers, No. 3 Knicks, No. 4 Pistons, No. 5 Cavaliers, No. 6 Raptors. Play-in tournament: No. 7 Magic, No. 8 Pacers, No. 9 Heat, No. 10 Hawks.

• Liam McKeone: No. 1 seed Cavaliers, No. 2 Knicks, No. 3 Pistons, No. 4 76ers, No. 5 Celtics, No. 6 Heat. Play-in tournament: No. 7 Pacers, No. 8 Raptors, No. 9 Magic, No. 10 Hawks.

• Blake Silverman: No. 1 seed Knicks, No. 2 Cavaliers, No. 3 76ers, No. 4 Celtics, No. 5 Pistons, No. 6 Raptors. Play-in tournament: No. 7 Heat, No. 8 Pacers, No. 9 Hawks, No. 10 Magic.

And here are the official Sports Illustrated predictions for the 2026–27 Western Conference standings, an average of all three writers’ picks:

Who will earn the No. 1 seed in the East?

Chris Mannix: Boston. The Celtics have a playoff ceiling but if they stay healthy—a big if with Paul George on board—chemistry and consistency should help them win a lot of regular-season games while the Knicks battle a title hangover, while Detroit assimilates some key new pieces and while the 76ers figure out how to play together. Plus: Joe Mazzulla can really coach, meaning Jaylen Brown's exit won't sting until the postseason.

Liam McKeone: Cleveland. The Cavaliers are my pick. The East’s new powers in Miami, Philadelphia and Toronto will need a runway to figure out how to play together. The Knicks didn’t need the top seed to win the title and don’t seem likely to prioritize that over fresh legs after playing 101 games last year. Cleveland, however, has a lot riding on this season and a roster more talented on paper than most opponents. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden may have a scattered playoff résumé but they know how to rack up wins from October to April in spades. Analytically and otherwise, the Cavs will have home court advantage through the East playoffs. 

Blake Silverman: New York. Philly, Toronto and Miami made the splashy moves, but the Knicks’ dominance on the way to the title is hard to forget. With mostly the same roster, I expect the Knicks to be near the top of the East once again and, this time, potentially finish at the top of the conference. The Knicks finished with the third seed the past two seasons and No. 2 in 2023–24. Now, they have a title to defend with a target on their back. That said, Andre Drummond should be a solid Mitchell Robinson replacement, filling the void from New York’s most significant offseason departure. The first five of Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges now have championship experience, which makes the already gelled Knicks core hard to go against.

Which Eastern Conference playoff team from last year is most likely to miss the playoffs?

Chris Mannix: Atlanta. I like some of the moves the Hawks made, extracting a pair of versatile defenders (Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins) that gives the Hawks a pretty formidable group of perimeter defenders. But a healthy Indiana is a playoff team, Miami, too, and Washington is intriguing, to say the least. Even with Jalen Johnson I don’t know if the Hawks have the firepower to win enough games to stay in the mix.

Liam McKeone: Atlanta. The Hawks’ new era is here, and the front office’s showing this offseason was strong, losing nobody of real consequence from last year’s playoff team while adding Lu Dort to an already-frightening group of perimeter defenders. But the Hawks could get crowded out of the postseason picture if Jalen Johnson doesn’t take a big leap. He’s a minted All-Star now—is he ready to go toe-to-toe with the other leading stars of the conference? Given Johnson probably ranks as the eighth-best top option in the East entering the campaign, my bet is no. Atlanta could end up improving year-over-year, but the team will need a big jump from its best player to finish near where they did last season. 

Blake Silverman: Orlando. The play-in range should be close in the East, and someone has to miss out. New coach Sean Sweeney certainly brings some juice to the Magic, but the lack of roster improvements puts Orlando potentially on the outside looking in. Maybe Paolo Banchero takes a big leap and Franz Wagner remains healthy, but the conference is simply too good to not have a team like the Magic near the cut line. I see the Hawks and the Magic in a similar tier, both solid teams in the East. The issue is, the top of the conference is stacked. Two of New York, Philly, Cleveland, Boston, Detroit, Toronto, Miami and Indiana will be in play-in territory. That’s before you get to Orlando and Atlanta. Some of the top teams could disappoint or face injury woes, but as things stand, Orlando’s playoff case is shaky even after it took the top-seeded Pistons to seven games last year.

Which Eastern Conference non-playoff team from last year is most likely to make the postseason?

Chris Mannix: Indiana. I don’t know if the Pacers pick up where they left off in 2025; there will be a re-entry period for Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac is very different player than Myles Turner. But Rick Carlisle, a master at playing to the strengths of his roster, will figure it out and Indy should be rolling by midseason.

Liam McKeone: Indiana. The Pacers are the easy answer. Indiana gets Haliburton back and will pair him with a true rim-running center in Zubac, the likes of which he hasn’t played with since his Sacramento days. It’ll make for a team different from the 2025 Finals roster, but the rest of the supporting cast remains intact, as well as the brilliant mind of Carlisle. Even accounting for some ramp-up on Haliburton’s side, the Pacers should compete for a play-in berth at worst. If the star point guard winds up building on his breakout season pre-Achilles? Indy’s breakneck style makes for a dangerous, dangerous team. 

Blake Silverman: Miami. Chris and Liam took Indy, so I’ll go with another easy answer … Miami. Yeah, the Heat lack depth. Will a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo really miss the playoffs, though? Some bumps in the road are certain, but as long as the superstar duo remains fairly healthy, it’s tough to see a world where the Heat completely miss the playoffs—even should that come through the play-in. Miami will need to make up for some key departures. Norm Powell is gone, plus Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware and Kasparas Jakučionis through the Giannis trade. Pat Riley did well with what he could, though, adding Bobby Portis in the big trade and signing Tim Hardaway Jr. and Klay Thompson in free agency. Second-round pick Ryan Conwell could bring some additional shooting, too. Miami has always found a way to win. That should only get easier with Giannis in town.

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