With fantasy football draft season reaching a fever pitch, millions of managers are logging into their draft rooms this Labor Day weekend, eyes glued to a single column of numbers: ADP. 

Average Draft Position is the ultimate security blanket for casual fantasy managers, offering a neat, numerical consensus on where players “should” be taken. Nevertheless, blindly following ADP during the peak of draft season is one of the most perilous mistakes you can make. 

The fundamental issue is normalization. True ADP data takes months to stabilize, and the numbers you see on your screen are often a messy amalgamation of early spring best-ball data, high-stakes drafts and casual redraft leagues. Navigating this data becomes an absolute minefield when players are violently rising and falling in the wake of training camp position battles and sudden injury news. 

This lack of early normalization creates massive market inefficiencies that savvy drafters must exploit. We are currently seeing this play out as the public finally corrects a major backfield misevaluation in New England. 

Smart drafters now understand that Rhamondre Stevenson should be drafted well ahead of TreVeyon Henderson. Though early ADP had Henderson ahead, reality has set in: Stevenson is locked into the heavy early-down work, while Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel has grown publicly unhappy with Henderson’s continued inability to pass block. If you simply followed a stale, stagnant ADP, you might mistakenly view Henderson as the value, missing the clear coaching signals entirely. 

A similar awakening is happening in the Chicago wide receiver room. Drafters are finally realizing that Rome Odunze should be drafted before his heavily-hyped teammate, Luther Burden III. The fantasy community might all be looking for Burden to enjoy a spectacular breakout campaign this season, but the film and scheme tell us it will not come at the expense of Odunze’s targets and workload. 

Odunze remains the undisputed X receiver in Ben Johnson’s offensive system. Because of that high-value alignment, Odunze is primed to garner the highest target rate among all Bears pass-catchers. Early ADP failed to capture this structural advantage, artificially deflating Odunze’s price tag for months. 

Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze watches from the sidelines during the first half of a preseason NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, Aug. 23, 2026, in Cincinnati. AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel

These shifting dynamics prove that ADP is a lagging indicator. It tells you where a player used to be valued, not where they are going. If you let a rigid spreadsheet dictate your roster, you are drafting a team built on old news and consensus compromise. 

Ultimately, you must treat ADP as a helpful guideline, not the gospel. If there is a player you truly covet because your research and intuition tell you he is primed for a massive year, do not hesitate to reach. Do not worry about taking him a round or two earlier than the consensus tells you to. 

Catch up on The Post’s NFL betting previews and predictions for the 2026 season

• The Post’s NFL betting roundtable
• Can the Rams live up to the hype?
• Props to target for the 2026 season
• 2026 NFL Predictions: Can Josh Allen lead the Bills to the promised land?
• NFL MVP predictions, odds: Can Matthew Stafford repeat?

Managers who tether themselves strictly to consensus rankings and generic ADP numbers almost always find themselves building a thoroughly average roster. They finish right in the middle of the pack, which is usually on the outside looking in come playoff time. Trust your board, break the ADP mold, and draft the players you actually want to root for. 

Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy, catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Ch. 87) weekdays from 6-8 p.m. and dominate your leagues with the latest football news and advice from Fantasy Alarm.