The Badgers are set to open up Big Ten play with one of the most daunting opponents they'll see all year: the No. 13 Penn State Nittany Lions.

Not only must Wisconsin open up conference play against an undefeated, top-15 opponent with one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the sport, it'll do so on the road in one of the most unforgiving environments in the sport.

As the Badgers look to kick off Big Ten play with a bang, collecting an upset win that would instantly jettison Wisconsin into the national conversation, here's my spread and over/under picks for Week 4, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread: Penn State - 9.5

When the line for this game was first released, I took it as an indication that the Badgers are getting more respect after thoroughly eviscerating Eastern Michigan.

Nonetheless, I'm still not quite sure what Vegas knows that we don't. Yes, Penn State will be without its best and most explosive playmaker on offense, sophomore receiver Koby Howard. Yes, the Badgers looked much better last week. Yes, Penn State has yet to play a team of Wisconsin's caliber this season. Still, a lot is going to have to go right for the Badgers to win this game.

Can they keep it close? Absolutely. Penn State boasts an experienced and productive offense, but the Badgers' defense looks to be trending upwards after finally notching their first takeaways of the season and getting back in the sack column against Eastern Michigan. Nittany Lions' quarterback Rocco Becht is going to make some nice plays through the air regardless; this game is going to come down to who can run the football.

If the Badgers can't establish the run, they'll be forced to rely too heavily on the arm of Colton Joseph. While he had a great day through the air last week save for the ugly first quarter interception, Penn State's secondary has been elite this season and Joseph remains good for one or two turnover-worthy plays each week.

On the flip side, Wisconsin has a shot if it can shut down the Penn State running game, but the Nittany Lions are rushing for over 200 yards per game through three weeks. The Badgers, meanwhile, have struggled at times to run the football, averaging 139.0 rushing yards per game, ranking No. 101 in the country in that category.

The surprisingly narrow point spread tempts me to re-evaluate how I see this game unfolding, but again, there's just too much that has to go right for the Badgers in my eyes for them to win this game, let alone cover the two-score spread.

Prediction: Penn State + 9.5

Total: 44.5

Last week, I got burned taking the under on the exact same total. Now, I can tell you with the utmost confidence Wisconsin isn't going to put up 54 points Saturday evening in Happy Valley.

But the passing game made real strides against the Eagles, and if/when tailback Abu Sama returns to action against Penn State, the running game could start to heat up as well. I'm still more confident in the Badgers' defense overall, but this is no longer a completely stagnant offense.

Sure, the numbers aren't anything special right now, and Wisconsin has just the 78th-ranked total offense in the country through three weeks with 389.7 yards per game. But the Badgers are undoubtably more dangerous and explosive on that side of the ball; their 6.1 yards per play ranks 38th in the country.

Thus, I feel comfortable saying the Badgers will can put up something in the range of 14 to 24 points Saturday evening. It certainly could be higher or lower, of course, but for this game with these circumstances, that's what I feel is most likely.

I see Penn State's offense having a higher ceiling but also greater variability in this game. It's not that hard to imagine the Nittany Lions being held to 17 or so points, but I also don't have to do too many mental gymnastics to see this team putting up 35 or 38 points on the Badgers.

Ultimately, I believe Wisconsin's offense took some real strides last week that will at least partially carry over to Happy Valley. But I also believe that even if the Badgers' defense is able to stifle Penn State early, they won't be able too all night long.

Prediction: Over 44.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.