Aston Villa finally did it. Not only is Unai Emery’s team the first in the Premier League to beat Manchester City this season, they are the first to even take points from them.

Enzo Maresca’s City had been perfect through seven rounds of matches, even with the guilty verdict hanging over the club since the September-October international break.

Yet a sloppy performance at Villa Park, with Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi particularly poor, was punished by on-loan striker Nicolas Jackson. Villa goalkeeper Zion Suzuki also thwarted City with six saves over the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but it was the first sign of any domestic weakness this season. Taking to the pitch shortly afterwards, Arsenal drew level on points with their greatest rival at the top of the table, held in second place only on goal difference.

The Gunners emerged victorious over Everton in what threatened to be difficult circumstances without star winger Bukayo Saka—sidelined potentially until Christmas. Arsenal lacked natural creativity, but it mattered little because last season’s set-piece prowess returned with a bang.

After those results and two others in the Premier League on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer has updated its predictions once more.

Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Premier League Title Winner

Arsenal’s statistical chance of winning the Premier League—thereby retaining an English championship for the first time since 1935—stands at more than 50%. Manchester City, on the other hand, are falling away, given less than a 35% chance now.

One thing is clear, the champion is one of these two. Brighton & Hove Albion are hanging in there as the only team with a greater than 5% chance. Liverpool little over 3% chance of a second title in three seasons, while Chelsea’s humbling defeat to Tottenham Hotspur has done their chance more harm.

Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Champions League Race

In the hunt for the Champions League, it would take a colossal collapse for Arsenal and Manchester City to miss out, both rated with chances in excess of 90%. Top four is a guaranteed spot in the competition, but the Premier League is likely to again command a fifth due to the ongoing strong performance of English clubs in UEFA tournaments.

At present, Brighton have odds in their favour better than 50/50 of making into the Champions League for the first time ever. Liverpool are not far behind, with Chelsea also rated at more than a 30% chance of qualifying. Aston Villa have around a 21% chance, after which the likelihood drops quite sharply for Brentford, Leeds United and Everton.

Manchester United’s chance of being among Europe’s elite next season is falling on account of a five-match winless run in the Premier League. As of now, it is under 6%.

Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Premier League Relegation Battle

Two wins in a row has suddenly made a massive difference for Tottenham Hotspur, whose chance of an unthinkable relegation is shrinking to 14%. Their predicted finish is now 13th place, which is still not very good, but worlds away from consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

There are six teams in much more danger, each with a greater than 25% chance of dropping out of the division into the EFL Championship. Ipswich Town and Hull City should survive immediate relegation but will be looking nervously behind them the whole way. Things can easily change.

Crystal Palace (28%) and Nottingham Forest (29%) are not in a good place. Fulham are almost at 31% chance of relegation, with Sunderland and Coventry City in excess of 40%.