Last season, many fans could have argued that a three-loss Texas team deserved a playoff bid. 

The Longhorns had defeated three teams that, at the time, were ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll. They had spoiled Texas A&M's perfect season. And Arch Manning was finally playing like the Heisman contender pundits had prophesied him to be before the season began.

But it wasn’t enough.

Texas finished No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings, narrowly missing the field despite its impressive resume.

This season, the Longhorns have the potential to make a similar argument.

Only this time, the committee might actually listen.

A Historic First Within Reach

Despite already suffering two losses, Texas debuted at No. 7 in Tuesday’s initial CFP rankings, placing the Longhorns comfortably within range of a playoff bid with only four weeks remaining.

And while winning out would almost certainly eliminate the questions surrounding their postseason hopes, the Longhorns’ favorable starting position raises an intriguing possibility.

Could Texas become the first team with three regular-season losses to earn an at-large bid?

Although the expanded 12-team format has already opened the door to such a possibility, it’s a feat that’s yet to be accomplished.

Clemson became the first three-loss team to reach the playoffs in 2024, securing an automatic bid after winning the ACC championship. Last season, Alabama became the first three-loss team to earn an at-large bid, although its third loss came to Georgia in the SEC championship.

Neither team entered the postseason with just nine victories.

But Texas might have the resume to change that.

How Much Room for Error Does Texas Have?

The Longhorns have already defeated three teams ranked inside the committee's top 13: No. 10 Ole Miss, No. 12 Ohio State and No. 13 Tennessee.

Those victories appear to carry considerable weight with the committee, which placed Texas ahead of several teams with fewer losses, including undefeated UCLA.

Call it SEC bias if you want. But dismissing Texas' three top-13 victories simply because of the conference it plays in would be its own kind of bias.

And with four games remaining, the Longhorns have plenty of opportunities to strengthen their case.

Texas travels to No. 18 Missouri on Saturday before facing No. 14 LSU in Death Valley the following week. The Longhorns then return home to face Arkansas before closing the regular season against Texas A&M.

Win three of those four games, and Texas would finish at 9-3, adding at least one more victory over a currently ranked opponent to its already impressive collection.

Three losses might not look particularly appealing on paper. But four or five ranked victories? That's a different conversation.

Of course, that doesn't mean history is guaranteed.

Another loss could send the Longhorns tumbling down the rankings, especially if it comes against the currently unranked Aggies or, heaven forbid, an Arkansas team sitting near the bottom of the SEC standings.

And with automatic qualifiers occupying at least five of the 12 available playoff spots, even a team ranked inside the top 12 isn't guaranteed a berth.

But the committee has already demonstrated that it values Texas' victories enough to overlook its shortcomings.

Whether that sentiment would survive a third loss remains to be seen.

Last season, the Longhorns learned that nine victories, even against a difficult schedule, were only enough for a trip to Orlando.

This season, they might get another chance to change that precedent.

And if it finds itself in the committee's favor, Texas could make history without reaching 10 wins.

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