NORMAN — OU’s 2026 season is in danger of spiraling.

The Sooners are in the midst of their bye week after losing 41-13 to No. 2 Georgia on Saturday. Two weeks before that lopsided defeat, OU fell 17-10 to Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Oklahoma is 2-2 with eight SEC games still on the schedule. The Sooners aren’t eliminated from College Football Playoff, but it would take a herculean effort for them to get back in the mix.

Here are the best and worst-case scenarios for the remainder of the 2026 campaign:

Almost everything goes wrong (2-10, 3-9 or 4-8)

A losing record would keep OU entirely out of postseason competition for the first time since 1999.

It’s hard to imagine that the Sooners will lose all eight of their remaining contests. But there are no more “gimmies” left on the schedule.

Even the teams that appear to be down this year — like South Carolina and Texas A&M — are loaded with talent. And considering how OU’s offense has performed through four weeks, there are no guarantees that the Sooners will be able to score points against even the conference’s less productive teams.

OU has a laundry list of offensive woes.

John Mateer has turned the ball over six times in four games. The offensive line has allowed opponents to pressure Mateer 46 times already. And the Sooners are averaging just 2.9 yards per carry.

If Oklahoma is unable to fix any of these problems, a losing season isn’t just possible — it’s likely.

Good defense, slightly improved offense (5-7 or 6-6)

Oklahoma can win a few more games if its offense becomes even slightly better and the defense continues to play to its standard.

More than anything, turnovers killed OU’s offense in its 28-point loss to Georgia. Several times, miscues from the unit set the Bulldogs up with stellar field position, and of course, a team as strong as Georgia will cash in on its opportunities.

Oklahoma’s defense hasn’t been perfect, as the Sooners missed 45 tackles in their first three games. Those numbers, though, improved against the Bulldogs, as they missed just four tackles.

The defense doesn’t have to be perfect or even as good as last year’s unit to keep the Sooners in games. But the Sooners must cut down on their turnovers to flirt with bowl eligibility.

Significant improvement across the board (7-5 or 8-4)

If OU finishes with a 7-5 record or better, that means the Sooners would also finish conference play with a winning record.

The team that has taken the field in the last three weeks would not be able to achieve this, so Oklahoma must improve in all three phases to achieve this.

The offense, of course, must get better production out of Mateer — or Whitt Newbauer, should offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle decide to bench the returning starter. Oklahoma must also minimize turnovers and find a way for the running back to become even decent.

As far as the defense, OU must put together a similar tackling effort to the one that it logged in Athens. The unit must also become better at stopping the run, as Georgia rushed for five yards per carry.

And kicker Tate Sandell, who won the Lou Groza Award in 2025, must improve on his 3-of-5 clip on field goals.

All of these things are necessary, considering the difficulty of OU’s schedule: Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Missouri are all currently ranked in the AP Top 25.

Totally different team (9-3 or 10-2)

Oklahoma’s offense can’t simply “get better” for the Sooners to finish with nine or more wins. The unit must become stellar.

OU still has to battle several top-tier teams, as well as others who appear to be ahead of schedule in their rebuilds, like Florida and Mississippi State.

As good as the defense is, the Sooners can’t expect to hold elite offenses under 20 points every game, so it’s imperative for OU’s offense to do a complete 180-degree turn.

It’s hard to picture this happening, considering the dismal offensive performances that the Sooners strung together against Michigan, New Mexico and Georgia. Currently, the best chance might come from making a change at quarterback. But considering Newbauer’s lack of experience against SEC defenses, it’s also hard to imagine that he’ll suddenly be one of college football’s best signal callers.

Making it back to the CFP — or even getting close — is a long shot. And just about all the chips falling the right way is necessary for that to even be a possibility.

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