In any college football game, every matchup across the board plays a role in determining the final outcome. But some matter more than others. There may be 22 players on the field at all times, but frequently the end result hinges on a handful of one-on-one or position-group battles.

When Illinois meets Ohio State on Saturday (11 a.m. ET, FOX), we just may see that. But in the case of the Illini (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) traveling to Columbus to meet the host Buckeyes (2-1, 0-0), neither figure from the game's most important matchup will ever set foot between the white lines at Ohio Stadium.

Why Barry Lunney Jr. vs. Matt Patricia will decide Illinois at Ohio State

Matt Patricia took over as the defensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2025. Immediately, his Buckeyes unit cemented itself as the best in the nation. By most quantifiable measures – and certainly when taken in the aggregate – Ohio State had the best defense in the country in 2025.

Points allowed may be the category that matters most at the end of the day, and in their first 13 games last year the Buckeyes allowed just two teams to score 14 or more points. (They yielded 24 to Miami in the CFP).

The non-Miami 2025 opponent with the highest point total against OSU? Illinois, with 16. There were two primary reasons why: 1) Illini quarterback Luke Altymer and 2) Illini offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. Altymer may be gone, but Lunney isn’t.

Can Lunney build another effective game plan vs. Ohio State?

In that 2025 matchup, the Illini deployed an up-tempo attack that kept Patricia and the Buckeyes' defense on its heels. Despite an interception thrown, a punter catching the snap with his knee on the ground, two fumbles and four sacks, Illinois still put up more points than any Ohio State regular-season opponent.

Lunney pushed the right buttons all afternoon. He dialed up a fancy handoff-into-a-pitch on fourth down that gave the Illini their first touchdown of the day. 

Illinois hadn’t made a habit of targeting its tight ends (who have historically been in blocking-heavy roles) all year. So what did Lunney do? He turned tight end Cole Rusk (season-best five receptions and 68 yards) into the star of the passing attack.

He attacked the few vulnerabilities of the Buckeyes defense, and in ways Patricia and his staff never would have expected. Then Lunney showed off his innovative thinking and creative play-calling exactly when the Illini needed it. And Altmyer, along with the rest of the squad, executed more often than not.

On the flip side, Patricia also exploited Illinois’ weaknesses. He ripped off blitzes once in a while – although he rarely needed them – and created negative plays. He utilized his advanced pre-snap disguises to confuse or delay Altmyer (and other Illini), which helped force some turnovers.

But this is a different year. Ohio State’s defense may be just as dominant. Guess what, though? The Illini offensive line is better. Quarterback Katin Houser should receive better protection Saturday than Altmyer got a year ago. The run game – which managed just 1.7 yards per carry against OSU in 2025 – should be more productive.

Houser has been even more accurate in 2026 than Altmyer was last season (though it remains to be seen if he has Altmyer’s unflappability). Receiver Collin Dixon is a year more experienced and looks the part of one of the best wideouts in the country.

But here’s why Lunney himself – and Patricia’s response – may be the decider in this matchup. Dixon is really good, but it will be Lunney’s ability to place him at spots within the scheme that allow him to thrive. And that same rule applies to all of Illinois’ pass catchers.

Consider: How many of Dixon’s touchdown receptions – and another that should have been a freebie – this year have been wide open? It seems like all of them, and the truth isn't far off. Part of that is a testament to Dixon’s route-running ability, but it also speaks to Lunney’s brilliance in deploying him.

So what does Lunney do this time around? Does he simply continue to find ways to scheme Dixon open? Can he consistently use him as a decoy to free up other Illini in the passing game (as has been the case at times over the first three weeks)? Does he once again turn to his tight end group, which has been virtually forgotten thus far, and highlight them in the passing attack as he did last year against the Buckeyes?

As for Patricia, what’s his plan of attack? Does he lean on his pre-snap disguises and the complexity of his scheme to push Houser into mistakes? Does he dial up more blitzes than a year ago considering this Illinois offensive line seems to be stronger? Or does he sit back and let his star-studded personnel just out-talent the Illini?

Operating at its ceiling, this Illinois offense is better than a season ago. And Lunney, who continues to find ways to improve his already-stellar system, surely has a handful of tricks up his sleeve. Patricia won’t be blindsided this time, but it's almost impossible to be perfect in outmaneuvering Lunney.

If Lunney has Patricia’s number again, Illinois may find itself within striking distance come the fourth quarter. And by then, it will be anyone’s game.