Drake Maye and Bo Nix are among the underperforming quarterbacks early in this NFL season. Jared Goff and Tyler Shough are in the top 6 at their positions, or are overperforming. As we well know, the NFL normalizes. Week-to-week, things change. That is where projections and rankings come into play. The quarterbacks below are on the fringe of being labeled must-starts. Yet, they are must-starts in Week 4. Let me tell you why.

All EPA Metrics are per draftwithdoug.com
All CPOE Metrics are per nfelo.com

Drake Maye

Any quarterback with a high rushing ceiling is worth a hard look. Maye is 9th in quarterback rushing yards (92) and 7th in rushing attempts. Better yet, in 2025, Maye ran the ball nearly 7 times per game for 37 yards.

I would not quit Maye just yet. Teams require time to come into form, and the Patriots may be in a valley in their season. Week 4 offers better things for Maye. The Bills rank 24th in EPA per Pass Play Allowed, and my power rating has their coverage ranked 27th in the NFL.

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence ranks 4th-best in 2026 Completion Percentage Over Expected (+8.6%). He is 3rd among active quarterbacks (Jaxson Dart = IR) and 2nd among those who have played all three games (Michael Penix Jr. = 1 Game).

The Jaguars also favor playing in what could be the shootout game of the week against the Bengals. My projection brings the game to over 50 combined points. Both teams are ranked in the top 9 per the ESPN Offensive FPI. The Jaguars rank 6th in Offensive EPA per Play and are top-10 in both Passing and Rushing EPA metrics.

Jared Goff

I find two metrics to be very useful for evaluating a quarterback's overall skill level: Adjusted Completion Percentage and EPA per Dropback. In those metrics, Goff ranks 8th and 9th in the NFL, respectively.

The Lions appear to be as explosive an offense as there is. They have scored 30+ points in every game this season. Facing the Panthers, the game should be higher-scoring, with my implied total above 50 combined points. The FPI rates the Panthers below average defensively, and I rate them 19th in that respect.

Jordan Love

Love has the great advantage of being three days more rested than his opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not only that, but the Buccaneers will start their rookie later-round draft pick, Jalon Daniels, at quarterback. The game could get away from Tampa Bay and help the Packers run up the time of possession.

Prior to the start of this season, the Packers were the 3rd-rated offense. That offers a reason to call Love a high-upside play, featuring two wide receivers ranked top-15 season-to-date in fantasy football.

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