The North Carolina Tar Heels basketball program is heading into the 2026-27 season with high aspirations, despite a first-round exit in each of the last two years.

Hiring Michael Malone is the main reason North Carolina’s trajectory is moving in the right direction, as the longtime NBA head coach has already made an impact in just a few months on the job. Although he had no prior experience with the transfer portal and was unfamiliar with the prospects on the market, Malone and his staff have assembled a competitive roster heading into this upcoming season.

Throughout the offseason, we have highlighted how experts and analysts have been overlooking the Tar Heels. That narrative remains, as ESPN's Jeff Borzello released his latest version of a "2026 Way-Too-Early Top 25 Rankings". Here is where North Carolina sat on that list.

North Carolina Listed Outside Top 25

It's becoming a common theme for the Tar Heels to be on the outskirts in these exercises. In these rankings, North Carolina is listed at No. 30 behind Nebraska, Iowa State, Purdue, and Villanova, which are on the precipice of cracking the top 25, according to Borzello.

Where the Tar Heels Rank Among ACC Teams

These rankings also provide a good idea of how North Carolina compares to the top-tier teams in the ACC. Based on this list, the Tar Heels are viewed as the fifth-best team in the conference, and the gap between them and the fourth-best team is significant. It goes without saying that Duke (2), Virginia (12), and Louisville (15) are all leagues above the Tar Heels.

However, Miami (18), ranked 12 spots above North Carolina, is a bridge too far. Again, the lack of continuity on the coaching staff and roster appears to be a major factor in analysts' evaluations of the Tar Heels. While that is a fair way to look at things, Malone's track record needs to be taken more into consideration when projecting North Carolina's potential.

Will North Carolina Outperform These Expectations?

As you guys know by now, I'm a firm believer that the Tar Heels will exceed expectations and become a formidable force in conference play. By the time the conference tournament arrives, North Carolina could easily be ranked inside the top 25.

At the conclusion of the regular season, I expect the Tar Heels to be the third or fourth seed in the ACC tournament. With Malone at the helm, North Carolina has an opportunity to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. We'll learn a lot about the Tar Heels in the coming months, but these early projections are way too low for a team with multiple marquee players and an upgraded coaching staff.