Darline Graham's chances of winning the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary appear to have slightly improved on prediction markets immediately after her first major debate performance Monday night, but the race remains competitive.

Graham used the debate to reinforce the message she has been emphasizing since entering politics: that she is not a career politician but someone who answered President Donald Trump's call to serve. In a post-debate message on X, she thanked viewers, described herself as a "hard worker," pledged to fight for the Trump agenda, and said she hoped to earn voters' support. She also doubled down on conservative priorities during the debate by declaring she would support ending the Senate filibuster if necessary to pass the SAVE America Act, aligning herself closely with Trump's policy goals.

While there has been no publicly available snap polling immediately following the debate, recent surveys suggest the Republican contest remains fluid.

Some polling has shown Representative Ralph Norman with a slight advantage among likely GOP primary voters, while other surveys have placed Graham ahead, reflecting a race with no clear consensus leader. As both Graham and Norman have emerged as the top contenders, Representative Russell Fry also remains competitive—making a runoff a realistic possibility—which under South Carolina law occurs if no candidate clears the 50 percent threshold.

Newsweek reached out to Graham, Norman and Fry's campaigns on Monday night for additional comment.

What Polls and Prediction Markets Show

Prediction markets, however, seemingly paint a more optimistic picture for Graham than traditional polling. On Polymarket, traders have consistently priced Graham as the clear favorite, giving her roughly a 62 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination as of 10:20 p.m. ET, compared with about 19 percent for Norman and 17.4 percent for Fry. Ahead of the debate, around 6:30 p.m. ET, the prediction site showed Graham's chance of winning at 59.4 percent.

As of 11:02 p.m. ET, her chance rose to 63.4 percent.

On Kalshi, Graham had a 63 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination as of 10:10 p.m. ET following the debate. At 6:30 p.m.—30 minutes before the debate—her chance was 60.4 percent. Fry's chance before the debate was 20.6 percent and Norman was at 21.4 percent. At 10:10 p.m. ET, Norman's chance of winning the primary was 21.2 percent and Fry's was 16 percent.

Graham has a few factors likely working in her favor: her incumbency, Trump's endorsement and potential access to much of her late brother Lindsey Graham's political network, even as some polls indicate a closer contest on the ground.

A recent poll from Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media shows Norman leading the group with 22 percent compared to Graham's 19 percent, Fry's 12 percent and former South Carolina Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford's 11 percent. All other candidates received single digits in the poll and 3 percent of respondents said "other," while 25 percent were undecided.

The poll surveyed 500 likely Republican South Carolina primary voters on July 28 and July 29 and had a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

In a co/efficient poll, Graham secured 30 percent of the potential vote, compared to Fry's 16 percent, Norman's 15 percent and Sanford's 9 percent. Other candidates landed single digits, while 20 percent were undecided. When asked if the election went to a runoff between Graham and Norman, 40 percent said they'd pick Graham and 35 percent said Norman, while 25 percent were undecided.

In a potential runoff between Graham and Fry, Graham received 31 percent to Fry's 40 percent, and 29 percent were undecided. In another hypothetical runoff, between Fry and Norman, Fry landed 36 percent compared to Norman's 28 percent and 35 percent were undecided.

The poll surveyed 857 likely Republican primary voters from July 28 to July 30, with a margin of error of 3.33 percent.

Republicans in the Senate hold a 53-45 majority—excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats. South Carolina's U.S. Senate seats are a Republican stronghold that are seen as unlikely to flip in Democrats' favor.

What Darline Graham Said During the Debate

While on stage Monday night, Graham said that she stands 100 percent with Trump and finds it very important to pass the SAVE America Act.

"If it were up to the Democrats, they would just open our borders and have everyone in here interfering with our elections," she said in part.

She also argued that Medicare for seniors must be protected and called for price transparency so patients can see medical costs upfront and shop around for the best price. "Healthcare costs are killing South Carolinians; it can easily bankrupt a family," she said.

While the debate may have possibly helped reassure conservative voters by highlighting her alignment with Trump and key GOP priorities, evidence suggests the nomination fight is competitive enough that a runoff election remains a plausible outcome.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins.