Scandals involving Republican Representatives Max Miller of Ohio, Cory Mills of Florida and Chuck Edwards of North Carolina threaten to imperil the GOP’s chances of holding onto control of the House of Representatives in the midterms.

Edwards, who represents a district that includes Asheville and Western North Carolina, withdrew from his race on Wednesday after the House Ethics Committee recommended that he be censured for his conduct toward young female staffers.

The North Carolina Republican’s withdrawal comes as Miller faces mounting calls to withdraw from the race after being accused of domestic abuse by his ex-wife, allegations he has denied. Meanwhile, two of Mills’ colleagues in Florida have endorsed a primary opponent against him after he faced a House Ethics Committee investigation into his conduct focusing on accusations of financial and sexual misconduct.

President Donald Trump won all three of their districts in 2024, but Democrats have viewed those races as having the potential to become competitive, particularly as Republicans face a difficult national environment driven by Trump’s declining national approval rating.

Why It Matters

Control of the House could come down to just a handful of races in November, particularly because a redistricting arms race earlier this year resulted in fewer swing districts. That means these races becoming more competitive could create a new headache for Republicans heading into November.

How These Scandals Could Affect Midterms

Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), told Newsweek that vulnerable House Republicans “mistakenly think that no matter how awful their behavior is, they are untouchable.”

“Voters in these districts are pissed over higher costs, Republicans’ broken promises, and are ready to reject these scandal-plagued members, who’ve made voters’ lives worse. Every single vulnerable Republican who has coddled and stood by these creeps should be ashamed of themselves, are unfit to serve, and will lose their job in November,” he said.

The main challenge for Republicans in these races is that a scandal can “dampen a party’s most active members from volunteering on a campaign, or a regular voter from voting at all,” Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek on Wednesday.

“That is the way they have the biggest impact—on energy, enthusiasm, and turnout,” he said.

Heightened political polarization makes it easier for parties to withstand these types of scandals, as many voters may still find voting for their opposing party a “bridge too far,” he said.

Still, these races could have strong implications for November, he said.

“With the Republican majority so narrow, any race that becomes competitive also becomes centrally important. So, a lot of potential difference,” he said.

Joshua Kennedy, professor of political science at Georgia Southern University, told Newsweek that Republicans have “no room for error,” but that these races are unlikely to be decisive.

“It could certainly swing these races (as troubling allegations helped swing the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Alabama in 2018 did), but Democrats are likely making up enough ground elsewhere that I doubt it'll be the issue,” he said.

Max Miller Doubles Down Despite Calls to Exit Race

Miller, whose district includes rural and suburban areas near Cleveland, is facing allegations of domestic abuse from his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Republican Senator Bernie Moreno.

According to court filings and police interviews previously reported by multiple outlets, including The New York Times, Emily Moreno accused Miller of several instances of abuse, including allegations that he threatened her with a firearm and physically assaulted her. The New York Times reported that Moreno alleged Miller threw hot water from a skillet at her, held a gun to her head, pushed her against a wall and fractured their child’s collarbone.

Miller has denied all abuse allegations.

A Miller spokesperson previously wrote in a statement to Newsweek, “The facts speak for themselves: the court has continued to permit him joint custody of his child. If there were credible evidence supporting these outrageous accusations, that simply would not be the case. Congressman Miller will continue to vigorously defend his reputation against false and reckless allegations designed to inflame public opinion rather than reflect reality. This narrative has gone on long enough.”

Some Republicans are calling on Miller to exit the race, but he has thus far declined to do so as he faces a looming deadline to allow the party to select a new nominee.

Miller’s chances of winning reelection have plummeted in prediction markets.

On Wednesday, Miller’s Democratic opponent Brian Poindexter had a 68 percent chance of flipping the seat on Kalshi and a 69 percent chance of doing so on Polymarket. One month earlier, Miller had a 68 percent chance of winning reelection in Kalshi’s market. This is a district Trump won by 11 points in 2024.

Kennedy said he is “baffled” Republicans have not done more to get Miller to leave the race.

“Miller is accused of heinous acts, and the longer he stays in, the likelier it is Republicans will lose the seat. I do not think replacing him would be particularly problematic,” he said.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten said Miller is on track to “most likely cost his party a seat” in the House if he doesn’t withdraw.

“What seemed like a race that was favoring Miller is now favoring the Democrat Poindexter as the scandal has hit the press,” he said.

Some Republicans have said he should leave the race. Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas told Politico, "He should resign. He should quit.”

Chuck Edwards Withdraws From Competitive North Carolina Race

Edwards, who was facing a competitive race against Democrat Jamie Ager in a district Trump won by fewer than 10 points in 2024, announced Wednesday he would not be running for reelection.

“After much prayer and reflection, I’ve decided to withdraw from my re-election campaign. I will complete my current term. Serving Western North Carolina has been the honor of my life. Thank you for your trust, prayers, and support,” he wrote in a post to X.

This week, the House Ethics Committee recommended he be censured after concluding that Edwards engaged in inappropriate conduct toward two young female staff members. A censure is one of the most serious forms of discipline available in the House short of expulsion. While it does not remove a lawmaker from office, it serves as a formal public condemnation by the chamber.

In a 15-page response published alongside the report, Edwards’ counsel wrote that the committee’s findings “exonerate Representative Edwards under House Rules governing sexual misconduct or harassment.”

He was facing a tight reelection; Ager is viewed as a top recruit in a district that defied national trends and actually shifted leftward in 2024. Edwards was also facing fundraising problems. In the previous quarter, he raised about $155,000 compared to Ager’s $1.4 million.

Ager’s chances of winning the race rose to 58 percent on Kalshi this week, but fell to a 52 percent chance after Edwards’ withdrawal, a signal that traders believe a new nominee will leave the party in a stronger position. On Polymarket, Ager had a 58 percent chance of victory as of Wednesday afternoon.

A local Republican committee is set to meet Monday, August 10, to select a new nominee, according to local news station WLOS. State Senator Tim Moffitt wrote in a post to X that he will be speaking with leaders across the district about running.

“The 11th District needs a conservative who will stand shoulder to shoulder with President Trump, champion Western North Carolina values, and run a campaign that's ready to win from day one — with the organization, the coalition, and the resources to hold this seat,” he wrote.

Cory Mills Allegations Upend Florida Primary

Mills represents Florida’s 7th District, based in central Florida, including the northern suburbs of Orlando. The new iteration of the district redrawn this year backed Trump by more than 12 points. On paper, it’s the toughest for Democrats of these three races, but Democratic groups have still rallied behind challenger Bale Dalton, who leads the Democratic primary in fundraising, in hopes that the race could be competitive.

On Wednesday, Representatives Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, both Florida Republicans, announced that they are supporting Ryan Elijah, a Republican challenger.

“We need leaders in Congress who serve with integrity, energy, and an unwavering commitment to the people who sent them there. Ryan Elijah is that leader. We are confident he will represent our shared values with distinction and deliver results for the families of Seminole and Volusia Counties,” they wrote in a statement shared by Luna on X.

Prediction odds still favored Republicans, who had a 68 percent chance of winning on both Kalshi and Polymarket; however, he had only a 39 percent chance of winning the primary on Polymarket and a 34 percent chance on Kalshi.

A House Ethics Committee probe began in November but has not released a report.

The committee wrote in a statement in May it is investigating “serious and complex” allegations relating to Mills and has authorized more than 20 subpoenas, collected thousands of documents and contacted dozens of witnesses.

It stated that the investigation is focusing on a February 2025 incident in which officers with the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Police Department responded to a report that he allegedly assaulted a woman he was in a relationship with. He was not charged. It is also focusing on an October 2025 injunction limiting his engagement with a woman.

Mills has declined to step down.

“If someone can give me a good reason, I’d be more than happy to listen to it. But until we can do that, absolutely not, no, I don’t plan to resign. We’re going to seek re-election,” he told reporters, according to NBC News, adding that he has complied with the investigation.

He said, “Why not let the investigating body and the Ethics Committee to be able to do their jobs? And so we comply. We’re very happy to see what the outcome is.”

What Happens Next?

As of Wednesday, the Cook Political Report favors Republicans in each of those three districts. It considers OH-07 and NC-11 to be Lean Republican, while FL-07 is Likely Republican. Sabato's Crystal Ball has the same ratings for Miller and Mills' races, but considers NC-11 to be a toss-up.